- cross-posted to:
- news@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- news@beehaw.org
In a week in which former allies in a redividing globe separately commemorated the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war, the sense of a runaway descent towards a third world war draws ever closer.
The implosion of Pax Americana, the interconnectedness of conflicts, the new willingness to resort to unbridled state-sponsored violence and the irrelevance of the institutions of the rules-based order have all been on brutal display this week. From Kashmir to Khan Younis, Hodeidah, Port Sudan and Kursk, the only sound is of explosions, and the only lesson is that the old rules no longer apply.
Indeed Fiona Hill, the policy analyst and adviser to the UK government on its imminent strategic defence review, argues the third world war has already started, if only we would recognise it.
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Depends on definition. The West is under constant attack by Russia for years now, but not in open war. Look at Putins use of psyops, his support for Brexit, for extremist groups and politicians, his hold on Trump and the way he uses him to destroy the US, with the MAGAs happily clapping and pushing the country down the fashism road.
Putin attacked Ukraine for nor voting his puppet into office, and grooms wannabe dictators wherever he can.
India and Pakistan fighting is normal. If ever they become allies, that’s when you can be absolutely positive that some real.shit is going to go down.
No we’re back to good old Proxy Wars.
European impearlists thinking they could isolate conflict and play the " great game " indefinitely on occupied territory led directly to WW1.
This is much hotter then the cold war was at its peak.
I figure the world is right about where it was in 1936.
To talk about the Gaza conflict in the context of a world war is ridiculous.
Yes the human atrocities are enormous, and the moral sickness equals Nazi Germany. But it is not part of a “world war”.
Yes there are many conflicts around the world ATM. But many separate conflicts do not equal a world war.
And no we are not already in a world war.If anything current could be called a prelude to a world war it would be America’s trade war against the rest of the world because virtually nothing else going on involves enough nations to qualify.
I agree, also because USA is alienating allies, and this clearly emboldens China, Russia and Iran.
But this will hurt USA too, and Trump will hopefully declare victory soon and end it.
Scenario: Israel strikes Iran with missiles, but this time Iran responds for real, with many dead. Maga shithawks jump on the conflict like they’ve been drooling to. Escalation spreads to Iraq and the arabian peninsula. Russia leans in heavily but in other theatres, chaotically. The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence, and with internal tensions stretched thin due to authoritarian members of the union. Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly and the USA pulls out.
While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan. Shit gets real everywhere, multiple African nations pulled in. Layers upon layers of conflict reflect the global complexity of it all.
Maga shithawks jump on the conflict
If USA attack Iran together with Israel, Iran doesn’t stand a chance. It will be a very short war like when USA invaded Iraq.
Escalation spreads to Iraq
There is no logical path for that.
Russia leans in heavily
Russian military is a joke now, they have their hands more than full in Ukraine.
The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence
That doesn’t make much sense, but let’s say there is a “whatever” reason. That would just make the defeat of Iran even quicker.
Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly
China has kept it’s distance from the conflict, and I don’t think China wants to actively increase instability in a world where they are making so much progress. Instability is bad for business. The way China has behaved NOT helping Russia much for 3 years, shows they would much rather participate in deescalation.
While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan.
This is probably your best point IMO, but as I see it, China has to wait at least 5 more likely 10, until China has independent chip production that at a minimum matches Taiwan and the west. At this point in time, an invasion of Taiwan would be very disruptive to many of the industries that are most important to China.
Even then it’s a very big question if China thinks it’s worth the enormous diplomatic crisis that would follow.So all in all, I don’t really see your thought experiment having much risk of leading to a world war.
Even though other scenarios might exist, I don’t really see that as a risk we should worry too much about.
Putin going even more crazy and using nukes is probably the biggest danger the world is facing ATM. Gaza is next to irrelevant by comparison.
But I suspect if Putin uses nukes, many of his allies will abandon him. And he will become a valid target for the entire world, and the Russian federation will not be allowed to survive.
Yeah literally no one is “warring” over this. They aren’t even making harsh comments. Everyone it seems wants the Muslims dead.
IDK why Israel is getting off so easy, there is clearly moral opposition to it, but nobody is doing anything?
Well, the moral opposition is actually pretty low. On here, yeah, we don’t want genocide. But, think about the average angry uneducated citizen of the world. Muslims are often seen as terrorists because so many of the terrorists follow Islam. They might think: not all Muslims are terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims. Which is obviously not true because there are plenty of non-Muslim terrorists. But you know how people are.
I agree that there are problems with Islam extremists, just as there are problems with other extremists. But obviously we should not solve the problem by becoming the problem ourselves. In Gaza Israel is the extremist, and it is insane that Israel is allowed to control it like it was some sort of criminal ghetto prison.
As I see it, Israel is a failed experiment, and the countries behind it need to step in and resolve the situation and at a minimum stop further Israeli settlements.
Because they still claim to be victims
It’s a huge part of the Israeli identity to claim that they’re persecuted for their religion
I don’t care about their superstition.
I care that they commit atrocities, do truly foul things for the US so that the Americans can maintain deniability, all while being disgusting hypocrites
Israel only exists so that the West has a permanent presence in an oil-producing region. That’s all it ever was
Sadly yes.
The Civil war has.
Is it really true that every eighty years or so humans have to immerse ourselves in this kind of behavior?
It seems so but it is a bit reductive. The uber wealthy have set the conditions for conflict based entirely upon greed. They profit from chaos and genocide and profit again in the rebuilding effort. Inequity has always been at the center of conflict.
Palestine has been in perpetual war for sovreignty since the end of WWII. So called third world countries always fight for scraps for the “developed” countries. Our relative peace has been at the expense of others.
The uber wealthy have set the conditions for conflict based entirely upon greed.
Same as it ever was…
Palestine has been in perpetual war for sovreignty since the end of WWII.
Yup. Even longer, actually: Timeline of intercommunal conflict in Mandatory Palestine
1881
The first wave of Jews arrive in Ottoman Syria in the First Aliyah after Zionism itself began some time in the 1850s
Eventually leading to the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and ongoing conflict
Basically the violence has been constant, with occasional breaks to reload.
The Pax Americana is probably responsible for the relative stability of the '90s and '00s - there was still violence, car bombings and rocket attacks &etc, but not open warfare. That’s obviously ending now.
My guess is that the period without warfare allowed Palestine to develop some economic stability and power of its own, which Israel perceived as a long-term threat. Combine that fear with greed and expansionism and you get the current attempt to erase Palestine.
My guess is that the period without warfare allowed Palestine to develop some economic stability and power of its own, which Israel perceived as a long-term threat.
There was no period without warfare or economic stability in Palestine. Israel went to war in Gaza four times between the second intifada and 2023, in addition to the blockade that meant no serious economic development could happen. As for the West Bank, also since the second intifada it has been under an economic stranglehold by Israel, and settlements are only one step removed from the warfare you’re talking about. So… Yeah. Things were not getting better for Palestinians before October 7th as far as I’m aware.
There was no period without warfare or economic stability in Palestine.
I mean… there was time to build a bunch of modern residential buildings, hospitals and businesses (the things Israel is currently blowing up and bulldozing) and for people to live their lives without having to be armed 24/7. It literally has not been open warfare (at least for a little while), and yes there was some economic stability, enough for local Palestinian businesses to develop, for a semi-functional civilian government to form, and for civil services like hospitals and schools to be established. It hasn’t just been a warzone for 100 years.
there was time to build a bunch of modern residential buildings, hospitals and businesses (the things Israel is currently blowing up and bulldozing) and for people to live their lives without having to be armed 24/7.
I don’t know about the businesses, but as for everything else I’m pretty sure that stuff is built via humanitarian aid.
It literally has not been open warfare (at least for a little while
The last time there was open warfare was in 2021, and before that in 2014, 2012 and 2008, with each war causing widespread humanitarian and economic devastation worth billions of dollars.
for a semi-functional civilian government to form
All inherited from the pre-Hamas era. Until 2007 Gaza was governed like the West Bank is now as a result of the Oslo accords.
and for civil services like hospitals and schools to be established.
Mostly built by the international community or inherited from before 2007.
It hasn’t just been a warzone for 100 years.
Yes, only for 25.
Smart people make things good, people forget what bad is, bad people take advantage of good people, bad people subjugate good people, good people do something smart, repeat.
This is how I learned to be selfish. I like helping others, but whenever I do, I find I’m not helping, but rather doing everything for everyone else. So now I’m selfish, and feel bad, until I remind myself why.
Well between 1 and 2 was only 24 years but yeah the once in a 100 year war is due soon.
I think WWI and WWII could be considered “World War Part 1” and " World War Part 2."
the armed conflicts overlap since thousands of years. there hasn’t been a single peaceful day in recorded history. so it’s more like an ongoing thing.
It seems so.
Once the last generation involved in the wars has (almost) completely died off, the men in charge of the world decide they must start a new global war to own more real estate.
/s if needed
Sarcasm? Reality.
I remember a refrain between my dad and I over Biden’s term, “Could you just imagine what would happen right now if Trump was in office handling this…?” mostly in reference to Ukraine and even Gaza.
No imagination necessary now…
I’m not sure we can imagine how bad it’s going to be.
“How about a nice game of chess?”
