The rules-based world order is in retreat and violence is on the rise, forcing countries to rethink their relationships

In a week in which former allies in a redividing globe separately commemorated the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war, the sense of a runaway descent towards a third world war draws ever closer.

The implosion of Pax Americana, the interconnectedness of conflicts, the new willingness to resort to unbridled state-sponsored violence and the irrelevance of the institutions of the rules-based order have all been on brutal display this week. From Kashmir to Khan Younis, Hodeidah, Port Sudan and Kursk, the only sound is of explosions, and the only lesson is that the old rules no longer apply.

Indeed Fiona Hill, the policy analyst and adviser to the UK government on its imminent strategic defence review, argues the third world war has already started, if only we would recognise it.

  • SreudianFlip@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
    132·
    1 day ago

    Scenario: Israel strikes Iran with missiles, but this time Iran responds for real, with many dead. Maga shithawks jump on the conflict like they’ve been drooling to. Escalation spreads to Iraq and the arabian peninsula. Russia leans in heavily but in other theatres, chaotically. The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence, and with internal tensions stretched thin due to authoritarian members of the union. Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly and the USA pulls out.

    While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan. Shit gets real everywhere, multiple African nations pulled in. Layers upon layers of conflict reflect the global complexity of it all.

    • Buffalox@lemmy.worldEnglish
      62·
      13 hours ago

      Maga shithawks jump on the conflict

      If USA attack Iran together with Israel, Iran doesn’t stand a chance. It will be a very short war like when USA invaded Iraq.

      Escalation spreads to Iraq

      There is no logical path for that.

      Russia leans in heavily

      Russian military is a joke now, they have their hands more than full in Ukraine.

      The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence

      That doesn’t make much sense, but let’s say there is a “whatever” reason. That would just make the defeat of Iran even quicker.

      Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly

      China has kept it’s distance from the conflict, and I don’t think China wants to actively increase instability in a world where they are making so much progress. Instability is bad for business. The way China has behaved NOT helping Russia much for 3 years, shows they would much rather participate in deescalation.

      While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan.

      This is probably your best point IMO, but as I see it, China has to wait at least 5 more likely 10, until China has independent chip production that at a minimum matches Taiwan and the west. At this point in time, an invasion of Taiwan would be very disruptive to many of the industries that are most important to China.
      Even then it’s a very big question if China thinks it’s worth the enormous diplomatic crisis that would follow.

      So all in all, I don’t really see your thought experiment having much risk of leading to a world war.
      Even though other scenarios might exist, I don’t really see that as a risk we should worry too much about.
      Putin going even more crazy and using nukes is probably the biggest danger the world is facing ATM. Gaza is next to irrelevant by comparison.
      But I suspect if Putin uses nukes, many of his allies will abandon him. And he will become a valid target for the entire world, and the Russian federation will not be allowed to survive.