Ranked ballots could have given Liberals majority: prof
In 2025, Miljan says a ranked ballot may have helped the Liberals eke out a majority — the party landed at 169 seats, falling just three short of a majority government.
“I don’t think it would have made a big difference, except probably in the few ridings where there were three-way splits, where you might have gotten a few more NDP seats and probably equally more Liberal seats,” she said. “In that respect, you would have had a Liberal majority, most likely.”
If we had had^1 a RCB since 2015/16, you would have also seen a response in the orientation of political parties. The fracture between the old Reformers and PC in the federal CPC would probably have resulted in a split. Without the spoiler effect welding the party together I can’t see them surviving long.
This also means that Erin O’Toole would probably be leading a more Centre Right PC-style party still, or Carney (who really seems like an old style PC in many ways) would have joined them.
Close to ten years after a potential move to a RCB, the fundamental landscape would likely have shifted.
It might’ve given us a Liberal majority! Or it might not. That would depend on whether people used the power to better express their preferences to indicate that they preferred the Liberals.
I can’t imagine FPTP actually did something good.
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It would’ve been more disproportionate than the current results as the liberals only had 43.7% of the vote. They did not earn a majority.
Canada needs proportional representation to properly reflect the populace while making every vote count!
I’d argue that the liberals getting 43% of the vote while scoring as well as they did is largely a function of strategic voting by NDP voters who refused to have a conservative govt. Strategic voting definitely contributed to their low % compared to the number of seats they got - I didn’t vote for them in my riding because my region has been con since the 60s. If it had been close, I probably would’ve considered it.
Worth mentioning I’m a staunch supporter of single vote MMPR, but in ranked choice their “% of votes” would’ve been higher than it currently is. Those additional votes would still be entirely valid votes, though they are a second choice vote.
Here’s a simulation of the different systems by Radio-Canada (in French)
Thanks for sharing that. This article would be good practice to read in french!
Firefox Translate works well enough on it too, but it uses the wrong pronouns on stuff like son aura a pâli should translate to its aura has turned pale, not his aura has turned pale since we’re not talking about a person.
Oh yes, much better than the original article.
That’s making a lot of assumptions which I don’t think are accurate. We know strategic voting is a thing. While I don’t think we have numbers of how many vote strategically, I think it’s safe to say most of them went to the Liberals given their advantage in the pre-election polls.
I’m not saying that the Liberals would have some poorly in RCV, but we can’t just assume everyone’s vote was also their first choice. And then we’d also have to get into how a different system would change the campaign, etc.
