Vuelta a España
This year, the Vuelta starts on Saturday from Italy, where the first 4 stages will be held, the 4th finishing in France. Curiously, there is no rest day between this Italian sequence and the following stages in Spain. In spite of the presence of a high-speed train connection between the 4th stage finish and the 5th stage location, the transfer will be by plane.
There will be 1 time bonus sprint per stage. Depending on the stage, it will either be at one Intermediate Sprint or at the top of a categorised mountain climb.
For points classification: there will be 1 Intermediate Sprint per stage, rewarded by 20 points (only the first 5 riders score points). Concerning stages victories, only the very first and last stages bring 50 points; the rest (half-half) brings either 20 or 30 points; points are always awarded to the first 15 riders.
Mountain classification (white jersey with blue dots):
- 4th cat. : 2 points (2 riders)
- 3rd cat. : 3 points (3 riders)
- 2nd cat. : 5 points (3 riders)
- 1st cat. : 10 points (5 riders)
- HC : 15 points (6 riders)
- Angliru : 20 points (6 riders)
The 5 Pro-Teams engaged are: Q36.5, Lotto, IPT, and the 2 Spanish teams Burgos and Caja Rural. Kern Pharma who won 3 stages (!) last year was not invited.
Vingegaard (🇩🇰 Visma), who has yet to win something this year, is probably the favourite for GC, with Almeida (🇵🇹 UAE) as a contender. Carapaz cancelled his participation again, after cancelling his participation on the Tour of France… Outsiders could be Tiberi (🇮🇹 Bahrein), Gall (🇨🇭 Decathlon), Ciccone (🇮🇹 Lidl-Trek), O’Connor (🇦🇺 Jayco), perhaps Gaudu (🇫🇷 FDJ) if he suddenly returns to being a pro rider.
Pedersen (🇩🇰 Lidl-trek) will go for the green jersey and stage wins. I fail to see any contender or even outsider, as there are almost no top sprinter (but Philipsen (🇧🇪 Alpecin)) or 4x4 riders (but Pidcock (🇬🇧 Q36.5) ?) on the startlist.
I wouldn’t underestimate Hindley for GC
I guess he’s quite a mystery as he only rode the Tour of Burgos since spring, and he didn’t ride it as a leader, I reckon.
The absolute scenes when he comes in and destroys everyone Cobo-style!
Stage 4: Tuesday 26, 11:25–11:43 → 16:30–17:00
The riders will reach France today. Another strange course, with lots of mountain in the first half over the easiest Alpine passes, then a ton of valley with a lone bump more than 40 km from the line, and another false-flat finish.
The finish looks like a roundabouts fest:
Nothing seems to have happened in the mountain part, except for the first climb to decide of the breakaway.
Nothing happened in the valleys, nothing happened on the punchy climb 40 km from the line.
Gaudu (🇫🇷 FDJ) attempted to get a time bonus at the I.S. but finished 5th behind a pair of Lidl-Trek and a pair of IPT. Vingegaard (🇩🇰 Visma) looked like he was going to take part in the sprint, but stayed watching the others when it really kicked in. Philipsen🇧🇪 and the whole Alpecin team didn’t do a single effort to contest the sprint.
Then Armirail (🇫🇷 Décathlon), out of boredom, decided to break away alone with still 30 km to go.
There was a crash of several riders 10 km from the line, at low /very low speed. Then, the trains accelerated as it is common, but strangely, the speed seemed to go down again after the 5 km banner.
Pedersen (🇩🇰 Lidl-Trek) lost himself in the last curves. Philipsen (🇧🇪 Alpecin) stayed behind his launcher way too long before kicking his sprint. Therefore Turner (🇬🇧 Ineos) wins. Pedersen showed a rather good finish but he started from far, thus only caught up one of the 6 guys battling for victory. It is yet another failure for Lidl-Trek, but Pedersen’s 6th place is just enough, together with his good Intermediate Sprint, to take the Green jersey before Vernon (🇬🇧 IPT) 4th today and Philipsen 2nd today.
Gaudu🇫🇷 stayed ahead a long time but went backwards in the end; however it was sufficient to arrive enough places before Vingegaard🇩🇰 and get the Red jersey the Dane wasn’t interested in keeping.
Nicolau (🇪🇸 Caja Rural) took the Dotted jersey, but not by much as today’s climbs were only ranked as 2nd and 3rd categories and the points were shared among the breakaway partakers. I don’t know if there were big fights for the mountain sprints or not, as the TV coverage started only after all climbs were finished.
Very early days, but Hindley is showing some decent form so far. He has been more competitive than I thought he would be on the punchy finishes.
Yep, twice in top-10.
Talking about top-10s, there was a mystery man yesterday: Bjorn Koerdt (🇬🇧 Picnic), unknown to most.
Stage 1 Saturday 23, 12:55–13:22 → 17:20–17:45
A 186 km stage for sprinters.
Hmmm… Pidcock (🇬🇧 Q36.5) took part in the final sprint; he ranked 9th. Was it for the Green jersey points (8), for the UCI points (30), or was he simply helping the other Q36.5 who finished 6th and just happened to end up there because there are not many good sprinters on the race?
Surprisingly Lidl-trek refused to make it so that the Intermediate Sprint could be disputed in the peloton. I say ‘refused’ because the breakaway gap had dropped to significantly less than 1 minute, there were still 10 km of favourable (for the bunch) terrain ahead, and the breakaway men weren’t trying hard to reach the I.S.
And then they messed the final sprint up.
Vingegaard won the Volta ao Algarve em Bicicleta in february :P But yes, granted, nothing of importance!
Right!
In fact, as he won the TT there, the actual things he hasn’t done this year is crossing a finish line in first position, and winning something at WT level.
This will all change in Spain, or perhaps before. Is it nine mountain top finishes this year? A bit too many for my liking, but let’s see what Johnny Vinegar can do with it.
Is it nine mountain top finishes this year? A bit too many for my liking,
How about 10, then? 😆
Regulation-wise (the regulation about sprint zones), there even are 11. They include stage #3, which is actually a long false-flat.
Good lord, I guess Mads Pedersens most serious competitor to the points jersey will be a GC rider then!
Yeah, if GC riders do battle for stage victories (that’s not always the case) he will have to be very regular, score a bit on all terrains and do every I.S.
On the other hand, the competition on sprinters’ side looks thin and rather weak. Regulation-wise, there are 6 stages marked as likely bunch sprint, and only two of them bring 50-30-20-… points to the first riders. Among those 6 stages, stage #15 is not guaranteed to arrive as a bunch sprint, as that stage starts with… a 16 km climb (!); and the bunch may split in the final part of the #19 which ends up in a couple of km of steep-ish false-flat, after a last part the profile of which looks quite irregular.
The majority of I.S. look fine for Pedersen, they are often after one or more small, or longer but not steep, climbs which may even drop pure sprinters if a team like Lidl-Trek decides to pull strongly.
Beside the two 50-points stages, there are 8 30-points stages and another 8 20 points stages. Plus the ITT which is 20 points too. But there are 19 Intermediate Sprints which bring 20 points each. So aiming for I.S., and scoring a bit on stages as a bonus could be the way to go. However, there is an ‘however’: as I said in my post, points for I.S. are only afforded to the first 5 riders! So that means going very often in breakaways or having one’s team control/chase so that they only allow tiny breakaway so that the points for 4th and 5th places are still avalaible for the bunch (5th is still worth 10 points, 6^th is 0). But that mean a lot of work for a team which will also have to support Ciccone, supposedly.
Sorry if this was a bit confuse, I was thinking as I was writing and checking documentation 😀 Perhaps it means chances are balanced and that’s a good thing?
Stage 3: Monday 25, 14:20–14:27 → 17:20–17:40
This stage will be a bit more hilly, and therefore might a bit less of a bore than the first 2 stages, if the finish wasn’t again a never-ending (20 km) light false-flat…
It could be time for Pedersen to start scoring points, as while the top sprinter and the top climber already both scored maximum points (resp. 50 and 30), he’s only scored 3 points on the first day’s finish, and none on the two Intermediate Sprints.
This should most definitely be a Pedersen-stage. I expect a top 3 from him, but hopefully a win.
Do you expect him to get into a breakaway, or win from the peloton? In the second case, his team will have a hell of a work, to get rid of better sprinters in the main climb and maintain the gap during the remaining half of the stage. It might be possible to only break away / drop heavier guys in the last hill 30 km from the line, but its ‘steep’ (6%) part lasts only 2 km; and of course there are still 30 km to go then. So I guess betting on a single climb is rather difficult, and they would have to drop/wear sprinters on each of the 3 climbs (the main one, and the smoother ones with a small relatively steep part). But riders here will be harder to drop than on the Tour of Denmark. Yesterday, he was really struggling on the final climb, before the steep section, in a peloton of 100 (?) riders.
After saying that, getting in a breakaway looks easier to me. But it requires finding consenting victims 😀 Or letting an early breakaway go, keep it under control with his team, and then attempting to break away and join them at mid-course or in the smaller climbs.
Anyway, as you can notice, I don’t see it as easy as on the Giro for example, where he and his team really ruled and imposed their strength and tactics. I see him having now much less margin over the contenders.
I think they will ride at a hard pace all day, but of course they can’t do it alone, so someone else will have to contribute. We will see, he needs to score points to realize his points jersey ambition. I don’t see a breakaway with him going far, who’d work when he’s in the group?
So far:
- Lidl-trel leads the peloton
- but they didn’t pull hard in the main climb
- but they pulled harder in the downhill part (it was twisty and caused splits at the back) and until the Intermediate Sprint
- they made a weird sprint there after luckily catching half of the former 4 members of the breakaway, Ciccone🇮🇹 followed Pedersen🇩🇰 as if there were still time bonuses for grab, and Vingegaard followed Ciccone🇮🇹. So, Pedersen scored 15 points but Vingegaard🇩🇰 scored 10 points… (Philipsen🇧🇪 was caught in a split)
- they stopped pulling hard after that, but more or less restarted after a short while
- no difference was made in any of the rolling and twisty parts, so one can take bets on how many riders will crash in the last curve, and the fuss that will be made about it after the race, as there is no 3-km sprint zone rule and no 3-seconds splits rule…
BTW, Zingle🇫🇷 didn’t start the stage, so that’s already one competitor less for Pedersen🇩🇰.
Well, this last mile course design was more interesting than I thought, with those hairpins giving it a feeling of a mini-Poggio.
Philipsen🇧🇪 gave up before the final part.
Pedersen🇩🇰 a little bit too short. Given the names in the top-10, it looks like Pedersen🇩🇰 working for Ciccone🇮🇹 would have been a better chance than the opposite.
Visma: After Campenaerts🇧🇪’s relay, Jorgenson🇺🇸 did an utterly shitty relay which buried Vingegaard🇩🇰, therefore Vingegaard🇩🇰 had more efforts to do after that.
Gaudu (🇫🇷 FDJ) dived in the last curve in a dangerous manner that could have wiped out Vingegaard🇩🇰 or Pedersen🇩🇰, but it went OK and gave him a victory.
Vingegaard🇩🇰 now leads the points classification 😀
Strangely (?), no gaps were recorded until the 70th rider.
Unexpected to see Gaudu win, but not unhappy to see him have some success. Pity it cost Pedersen a victory, though!
I don’t see a breakaway with him going far, who’d work when he’s in the group?
That’s what I meant by “finding consenting victims”. It could be small Pro Team riders, but the problem is that on the Vuelta as well as on the Tour de France (unlike on the Giro), there is very little to grab to them in terms of secondary and tertiary classifications and prizes.
Stage 2: Sunday 24, 13:35–13:53 → 17:20–17:40
And here comes the first final climb. That’s in fact the beginning of the road of the Col de Tende that goes to France. Given the elevation of the finish line, I guess they go until the tunnel entrance. The climb is not as hard as it looks on the profile, most of it is in fact a false-flat.
The French side of the real pass, which they won’t use at all, is much more impressive with all its hairpins:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/cachnVR2h7LvEb7v5
As you can see, a landslide caused by an extremely violent storm in 2020 wrecked the road and the tunnels entrances, plus lots of destruction (the content of the local graveyard was dragged on the Italian sea shore 40 km away) and about 10 casualties below and in nearby valleys.
Impressive punchy win from a pretty large group from Vingegaard. Special mention also to Gaudu who rose from the dead to claim third.
Yeah Gaudu was hanging behind the peloton for many miles, and then in the climb he said he didn’t feel right until the last 2 km started. It may correspond to the speed reducing because of the gradient getting harder, because the whole false flat / moderate climb part must have been ridden at high speed. Like a Cipressa / Poggio climb, now that I think of it. And while single climbs with a sprint finish have rather been sort of a good spot for Gaudu, Milan-Sanremo probably isn’t (he’s never even ridden it).
Among the favourites we listed, I reckon only Tiberi is 20 seconds behind. I mean, many others got counted a 2 seconds gap, but well, that’s not very important.
A snore fest.
There was nothing on the course of the stage for the breakaway. One or two climbs could have easily deserved a 4th category ranking, but no: nought.
All teams considered this stage as a sprint stage. Uphill sprint, but sprint. It went exactly the same, with all teams starting to make parallel trains (which is always 100% useless) something like 30 km before the finish, and pulling like maniacs until they cause the first mass crash.
Luckily for FDJ, Guillaume Martin🇫🇷 had already crashed and abandoned in the only short descent of the course, which allows the team to be first at something.
Roglitch*'s spirit was over the race: there was zero attack until 500 m from the line.
Gaudu (🇫🇷 FDJ), much better than expected, finishes 3rd. Other than that, the two favourites of the day, Vingegaard (🇩🇰 Visma) and Ciccone (🇮🇹 Lidl-Trek) finished on the same line, the former winning.
What else did I note?
Pedersen🇩🇰 was trying to lead his team for Ciccone🇮🇹 halfway in the climb, but was struggling hard and wasn’t very useful. He was replaced by JF. Bernard🇫🇷, whom he had replaced previously, I think.
The whole Q36.5 pulled all day until they disappeared in the crash. Pidcock🇬🇧 finished 10th; I am sure but it is likely he went down in the crash.
Zingle (🇫🇷 Visma) and I think Van Dijke (🇳🇱 Bora) were the riders who had the most difficulties to restart after the crash. Zingle needed medical assistance, perhaps to put back in place a dislocated shoulder. edit LOL: I hear that his bike got stolen during the operation 🦹♂️
Zingle (🇫🇷 Visma) and I think Van Dijke (🇳🇱 Bora) were the riders who had the most difficulties to restart after the crash. Zingle needed medical assistance, perhaps to put back in place a dislocated shoulder. edit LOL: I hear that his bike got stolen during the operation 🦹♂️
So, it looks like it wasn’t stolen, but had been put into the sweeper car.
However it may have been among the 18 Visma bikes that were stolen during the following night 😆
