Tariffs are not a new concept and have been used historically to build economies. Top China analysts in the Obama administration credited its economic rise to protective tariffs and high barriers to entry for any foreign companies to sell in country.
I’m probably a bit older than most lemmy users and remember when tariffs were a major talking point for democrats as a positive thing to protect American jobs. Hell, growing up in the Midwest, all my dad and his buddies that worked union jobs had to vote democrat because of their aggressive tariff policy to protect their jobs.
So what if trump is right about tariffs and it reinvigorates the American economy? Will people find another reason to credit the success to? Will it be the end of blue collar voting for the democrats?
Edit: Markets are rebounding hard, I bought low, glad Lemmy is full of pseudo intellectual economic morons. How is Lemmy going to cope now?
We’ll never know
Tariffs will be super hard on american economy. There is no universe where current tariffs and migration policy wont mean stagflation from hell. But that’s a price that might be worth/necessary paying. However, if american blue collar are able to organize, there is a possibility that blue collar salaries will keep up with inflation and that implies economic power is transferred to the working clas (supply and demand will be on the side of blue collar at least). Transfer of economic (and political) power is very much needed if the US democracy shall survive (or return from the dead).
But it’s all a big gamble for sure. Chaos and feudalism/fascism is probably the most likely outcome. Everything is so complex that it’s impossible to know for sure. Hopefully evolution has empowered us with enough accurate intuitions.
That would certainly be quite surprising. The expression of Trump being right is flexible enough to be interpreted in various ways.
The only plausible way would be if he achieves some largely meaningless concessions and the media spins it as a win. But if the American electorate gets the idea that the US can get free stuff by throwing a fit, then any agreement is not worth the paper it is written on.
Well, I guess that’s the answer. If Trump achieves anything positive with this, then the reaction with be self-destructive.
Do you have any particular scenario in mind that ends with Trump being vindicated?
And the last time they have been used by the US in 1930, they ruined the economy.
Most people who aren’t right-wing nut jobs know how to admit when they’re wrong about something and how to be happy for something that actually is a positive for the majority of people who aren’t already rich, regardless of how that result was achieved.
Tariffs are normal, they encourage a strong local economy that doesn’t get screwed over by a dominant economy that decides to use the trade relationship against the local economy, but they haven’t been “aggressive” since the last time they were used as an act of war and ended up causing a depression.
Tariffs are normal, they encourage a strong local economy that doesn’t get screwed over by a dominant economy that decides to use the trade relationship against the local economy
But America was that dominant economy, right up until the tarrifs were imposed. Now it’s more like we’re brexiting ourselves.
Right? Like I’d LOVE to be proven wrong and for this to actually help our economy and the middle class. It’s just that I’m realistic and can see that this is much more likely to lead us to a recession instead
Ignoring whether he is or not, as that is a DEEP dive into world economics, the response would have some variance, because nothing is monolithic, but I expect the prominent responses would be for supporters to cheer and gloat, for the independents to cheer and hope, with timing deciding the midterms, and for the opposition to drop it and focus on all the other problems with Trump.
I feel like that’s going to be the response. When stocks were dropping “THIS IS BECAUSE OF TRUMPS TARIFFS!!!” And now that they are going back up they will say “Well…. There are a lot of factors that go into global economics and it’s not a monolith”
Saying ‘the response’ is kind of pretending it’s a monolith. There will be a lot of carefully considered discussion, regardless of what the result is, because that’s what adult humans do. Then there will be the great lumps of BS that are projected by party mouthpieces and parroted by the party followers. I’m less interested in the social media chatter as a response and more interested in the response from the other countries.
China’s choice to place export restrictions on things like Yttrium and other rare earth metals, when they control ~3/4ths of the world’s supply, could put companies around the world out of business or under Chinese soft power. Some of America’s biggest blue chip companies are reliant on those materials. China is not going to make it easy if even possible to get those elements for US companies. Companies in Europe and Asia could also be targetted with it as an implementation of Chinese soft power.
Another issue to consider is the recovery itself. The market always craps its pants when Trump speaks because the thing the market loves is predictability and Trump is unpredictable. It’s hard to say how comfortable the investor class will be with taking risks on new investments when one announcement from the oval office can drop share prices to a new 52 week low.
Facing all this, it’s hard to care much about the chatter from party loyalists.
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This thread is an example why Lemmy wont succeed as the new reigning image board.
Yeah you definately sound a lot older than most lemmy users, what are you doing lurking here creep. Don’t you have a bingo game to attend or something
He is not.
A tariff is a tax that increases the price of imported goods.
Tariffs are used to push people toward domestic alternatives to imported goods.
However, today, there are no domestic alternatives to most important goods.
So, all it’s doing is increasing the burden on the average person.
Companies are not going to invest in domestic production. They are going to spend that money lobbying to have tarriffs removed. Because guess what? Once tariffs go away, consumer prices are not going to go back to what they used to be. Instead, megacorps are going to pocket the difference as profit.
companies are not going to invest in domestic production
$1.1 trillion already committed to building in US. Not sure what you are talking about
Source?
I don’t believe this question is being asked in good faith
Yes, as you said, they aren’t a new concept. We have plenty of evidence, of countries that tried that again and again. We know what he is doing is stupid.
Besides, your theory on tariffs won’t even get to be tested. Kidnapping people at random on the street and sending them to concentration camps has an overwhelmingly larger impact on the economy than the tariffs. People from outside of the US will only focus at this if you start to invade other countries, but at this point, nobody inside the US should be concerned with tariffs, at all.
He isn’t. He can’t be; not the way he has handled them.
Bringing industry and manufacturing back to US soil is actually not a bad idea at all but it’s a problem that needs to be tackled smartly and over a period of time so businesses can react. He is trying to force decades worth of economic migration in the span of a few months. For (hopefully) obvious reasons, that is impossible and the US economy is about to collapse.
And considering Trump, along with Musk at DOGE, have systematically destroyed economic and social safety-net programs… the aftermath of this is going to be catastrophic. The only way Trump is “right” about these tariffs is that they are an intentional sabotage of the US economy so him and his wealthy backers can cash out as the walls come crashing down. That is the goal and it’s going according to plan.
I suspect he is right. These tariffs will torpedo the economy just as intended.
He won’t be right about tariffs because he (and you, I suppose) has a gross misunderstanding about how tariffs should be implemented. Tariffs are typically used to strengthen a local product. Say that we wanted to support Napa wine. We might introduce a tarrif on importing wines from our largest competitors. This would increase the cost of the foreign product in relation to the domestic product and encourage consumers to buy locally. So, why won’t this work if we just tarrif everyone for everything? Well, we don’t make everything so they’re isn’t a local option to buy instead. Not just for you, but for the companies that make the things you consume. Oh, then let’s just build up the industries to make everything. Even disregarding that we don’t have the ability to produce everything due to, well, climate and resources, that would cost many millions of dollars and years of investment before seeing a profit. Which is a nice idea if businesses had any faith that the tariffs are permanent, which they don’t not only because the current administration (likely lol) won’t be in power forever, but also because the current administration has said that they are willing to negotiate. So why bother making the investment when you can import again soon? And lastly, if we try to strong-arm everyone at the same time, they’ll just band together without us. They don’t need to trade with us if they have an alternative in a more profitable trade partner, and we’ve just incentivized the entire world to look for a better option than us. We did that. All at once. The idiocy is frankly astounding.
