Current trajectory estimates are more like +2.5C to +3C by 2100 based on existing policy. We’ve actually managed to move the trajectory downward even though we obviously have a lot to go. Every little bit counts. It is far less binary than this overly simplistic tweet is suggesting

Excessive claims like this end up demotivating people and make them want to give up when we can reduce the damage each time we move our trajectory down by 0.1C

If the filibuster is removed, it is also possible to get through with 50+VP as tie breaker or 51. The filibuster being removed is not as unlikely as you may think since Republicans right now are getting closer and closer towards defacto removing the filibuster. There currently are narrow ways around the filibuster (reconsideration is one big one) that are supposed to have a bunch of limitations, but they are testing the waters in ignoring violations of those limitations. The senate parliamentarian is the one who makes rulings about if something violates their clauses, but their opinion can be ignored by a strict majority via the “nuclear option”

A month ago, Republicans used the nuclear option to ignore the senate parliamentarian ruling that the Congressional Review Act would not allow them to skip the filibuster to remove California’s EPA waivers (see here).

As I write this Republicans are currently trying to play another different a different trick about some of the stuff in the Big Beautiful Bill. Dems have been challenging a bunch of provisions and getting the parliamentarian to most of the time rule they are in violation of the Byrd rule. But they are also trying to challenge the whole bill as violating the Byrd rule’s limit that a bill passed via reconsecration cannot increase the deficit over a ten-year period. Republicans are playing an accounting trick to claim it doesn’t. They know the parliamentarian is unlikely to agree with them, so they are currently trying to prevent dems from even being able to ask the parliamentarian about it

Yep, and even larger can be overcome too. If you look AOC’s 2018 primary upset, she was outspent by over 10x

Insane outspending can be overcome. Obviously it makes the fight harder, but money is not everything

Because they massively outspent Zohran in the primary and still lost. Vote because you can still overcome this. They want us to give up and think we can’t. Don’t do their dirty work for them

There’s a primary for his now vacant seat this Saturday if anyone here is in that district (VA-11) and wants to avoid a repeat. Special election is in September

There are some progressives running in that primary

Vote in every primary. The establishment can’t fight as hard as they did for Cuomo everywhere. There are lot of primaries across the country that many people don’t even know are happening

For instance, there’s one for the US House seat in VA-11 (Most of Fairfax county + Fairfax City) this Saturday prior to the September special election to replace Gerry Connolly who died from cancer

Overperformance compared to polls and the money stacked against him. He’s not just won the primary*, but won it big. Few polls had him winning. Even the polls that had him winning overall had him losing the first round of ranked choice by a fair margin. He’s just won the 1st round by like 7%

(for reference about the money)

* technically the final rounds of ranked choice aren’t yet tabulated, but it is exceedingly unlikely he given that the person in #3 is a progressive who told his supporters to rank Zohran #2. Cuomo has already conceded

Hope does not mean blind hope. It does not mean you will always win. It means knowing that you can

Always try. No matter how hopeless it seems, you always have the possibility to win a seemingly impossible fight. This a shining example of overcoming and winning big

Giving up is a guaranteed loss. That is what they want us to do. Never give in

Ah yep looks like they updated their title again. Not sure I like that it’s vaguer about it all with no names listed but at least it’s less judgemental

They poured millions and million and massively outspent Zohran and still lost. Zohran had no name recognition, and was virtually a nobody in February. The establishment worked hard against him and still lost. They rolled out shameless endorsement of Cuomo after shameless endorsement (like Bill Clinton, apparently). The establishment didn’t lose for a lack of effort. This could happen anywhere next

He’s also signed paperwork to run as an independent in the general election in case he lost the primary.

“I said he won the primary election,” Cuomo told the outlet. “I said I wanted to look at the numbers and the ranked-choice voting to decide about what to do in the future, because I’m also on an independent line.”

Though he probably expected it to be far closer than this. Zohran massively outperformed polls. No polls had him winning the first round let alone by this much (even the few polls that had Zohran winning)

If they ignore it, the progressives are starting to get ready to take it in the primaries themselves. There’s been an increase in young progressives running for state & local office following these results

(https://bsky.app/profile/amandalitman.bsky.social/post/3lsflzpcjlk2i)

A historically massive over performance of the polls and how the candidate (Lander) who is third on the first round is also a progressive

Few polls had Zohran winning. Even the polling that had Zohran winning had him losing the first round vote by a fair amount and only flipping to win in the 7th round. No polling had him winning the 1st round. He’s just won the first round by like 7% of the vote. He’s not far from 50% of the vote outright on round one

We won’t have the official results from the later ranked choice rounds until July 1st, but just ~60% of Lander’s #2 votes alone would push him above 50% even if all candidates below Lander went 100% Cuomo for #2. Lander cross endorsed Zohran and told his supporters to rank Zohran #2

Can’t change the BBC title, but did edit the title here to remove that now that you point that out

An actual progressive, see https://www.zohranfornyc.com/

Policies ranging from city-owned grocery stores to taxing the rich to making NYC busses free and more

*sigh*

President Trump on Tuesday said Iran was “very close” to having a nuclear weapon, despite March testimony from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that Tehran was not building one.

[…]

Driving the news: When pressed on Gabbard’s assessment by reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump replied, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having” a nuclear weapon.

[…]

Gabbard, during her opening remarks at a House Intelligence Committee hearing in late March, said that “[t]he IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/trump-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-testimony

In good news, he has been released now after large push-back but absolutely BS to have arrested him in the first place

If they get him on state charges, only the Minnesota Board of Pardons can do that. Which consists of the Governor Tim Walz (D), Chief Justice of the Minnesota Supreme Court (appointee of Walz), and Minnesota Attorney General (D)

Looking at the Crowd Counting Consortium data it’s a little higher than 2017, but much less than 2025. At 140 days into office Biden’s total was at 8150 (with 1020 of them taking place before he took office)

I believe days into the term which started on Jan 20th. Otherwise we’d be at 160s instead of 140s