First of all I love this question. My suggestion is that you shuffle a deck of cards, flip them over and note their exact order, then shuffle again and note the order again then keep shuffling and checking the order until the deck resets to the original shuffled order. It’s gotta happen eventually, but it might take you a while. In fact a lot of people have studied that very specific problem and there’s actually really good odds that every shuffled deck you’ve ever held has been the only deck of that order in history. So, yes, it almost certainly has happened somewhere, but good luck finding it.
It’s like when playing the lottery, if you say you’re picking all your numbers in a sequence, like 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. People will tell you’re crazy because sequences like that “never” happen. But the same is true for every other combination of numbers too. The sequence just makes it clearer how unlikely you are to ever pick the winning numbers.
It’s gotta happen eventually, but it might take you a while.
A while is a great euphemism here… A deck of 52 cards (poker playing cards) has so many potential orders that it is said that each time someone shuffles a deck nowadays, it’s really likely to get a deck order that has never been gotten before!
I was fascinated for a couple years, back when flash player was coming to an end. I built a deck of cards in AS3 with the original goal of a simple single player blackjack. This was introductory research I came across that has held a fascination for me ever since.
But since we’re talking about early life forming (actually chemical replicators, much simpler than a virus) let’s use the card shuffling odds, but decks of cards are being shuffled in billions or trillions of places on early Earth every second for millions of years. Even a very low odds of finding a working sequence of molecules will be found geologically quickly given the amount of times done over area and time. We’re pretty sure now that life began very soon once the Earth cooled down enough to allow it. What took much longer was the more complex forms of life like viruses and single cells, then even longer for multicellular.
First of all I love this question. My suggestion is that you shuffle a deck of cards, flip them over and note their exact order, then shuffle again and note the order again then keep shuffling and checking the order until the deck resets to the original shuffled order. It’s gotta happen eventually, but it might take you a while. In fact a lot of people have studied that very specific problem and there’s actually really good odds that every shuffled deck you’ve ever held has been the only deck of that order in history. So, yes, it almost certainly has happened somewhere, but good luck finding it.
It’s like when playing the lottery, if you say you’re picking all your numbers in a sequence, like 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. People will tell you’re crazy because sequences like that “never” happen. But the same is true for every other combination of numbers too. The sequence just makes it clearer how unlikely you are to ever pick the winning numbers.
A while is a great euphemism here… A deck of 52 cards (poker playing cards) has so many potential orders that it is said that each time someone shuffles a deck nowadays, it’s really likely to get a deck order that has never been gotten before!
That’s exactly what they just said.
Found it! It had actually just fallen into the couch cushions.
This is my favorite reply everyone else can go home.
52!
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https://czep.net/weblog/52cards.html
I was fascinated for a couple years, back when flash player was coming to an end. I built a deck of cards in AS3 with the original goal of a simple single player blackjack. This was introductory research I came across that has held a fascination for me ever since.
There are more combinations in a deck of cards than atoms on earth.
But since we’re talking about early life forming (actually chemical replicators, much simpler than a virus) let’s use the card shuffling odds, but decks of cards are being shuffled in billions or trillions of places on early Earth every second for millions of years. Even a very low odds of finding a working sequence of molecules will be found geologically quickly given the amount of times done over area and time. We’re pretty sure now that life began very soon once the Earth cooled down enough to allow it. What took much longer was the more complex forms of life like viruses and single cells, then even longer for multicellular.