I think it’s something like this:
the economy doesn’t shrink, but the demand for human workers depends on the rate at which the economy grows, and if that slows down, so does demand for human workers and that means that by the rule of supply and demand, the prices (wages) for human labor go down. and that’s what people are feeling as economic hardships right now.
Right now the only thing keeping the US economy strong are speculative assets, like stocks. As soon as that drops, the US is in a world of trouble. There seems to be a housing crisis brewing in the south, with prices droping like crazy. At the same time international investors are leaving the US and the general economy is not doing too well. Unemployment goes up and tariffs raise prices.
The US going down is probably going to crash the global economy as well. China has built up a massive corporate debt bomb right now. When you are pushing twice the level of the US, you really have a problem. Europe is not doing to great either, with the Ukraine war still hurting and debt still being a massive problem.
So yeah, we might very well be in a recession right now, but just do not know it.
After the sixth life altering economic disaster before my fifties (and you’re usually supposed to have one, maybe zero) I just kind of feel like fighting someone to the death for televised sport, possibly on the internet, definitely for money, could be a good way to go out. Like, it’s better than anything society is offering.
Find a CEO. They’ll televise it for you if you start chewing on their face in a cafe.
#death race death race death race
It’s only a bad economy when the rich are losing money.
Well yeah. Why do you think we use GDP as a main unit of measurement of economies?
Oh, it’s not the worst economy of the regime, it’s the worst economy of the regime so far!
If the stocks people are still making money, it’s not a recession, peon!
Didn’t he reclassify how GDP is calculated to avoid recession classification?
Of course this is not a recession. Business in America has been Made Great Again. And the One Single Most Best Businessman in the World has Made it Happen!
This is an Economic Nap Time, stop talking about it or you’ll wake it up and it’ll get even fussier!!
Two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June)”
-0.5% in Q1, so no, not a recession yet. Even if it drops in Q3, it still has to drop again in Q4.
Yes, the general definition is two straight quarters of a declining GDP. However, most economic data is delayed, so you won’t know we’ve hit a recession until it’s already happened. It’s declared retrospectively.
But feel free to correct me if I’m wrong: I’m not an economist (thank God).
GDP growth isn’t the only indicator. There are other macroeconomic indicators to consider including decline in manufacturing output, uptick in job unemployment rate, lower retail sales and higher consumer price index. Bad figures from all, or most, of these in at least three consecutive months trend towards recession. I am not an economist either to warrant more detailed analysis, but I have heard of rumours of recession coming this autumn so I have been keeping an eye on these factors.
I mean, they could still release corrected numbers for Q2, but man, that would have to be a hell of a correction to go from +3% to -Anything%.
I’m sure he has fired the person responsible for determining economic performance
I am waiting for more macroeconomic indicators before we could consider recession (and pull out my investments). But if it doesn’t come soon, the recession proper will take couple more months to take effect.
Pulling out your investments is what makes the crash happen
I mean yes, but I doubt the average lemmite is in the top 10% of stockholders that have the lion’s share of affect on the market since they own like 90% of the market (or some outrageous number like that, I don’t know the exact numbers offhand). Investment moves made by small players are probably tiny compared to what the rich and their asset managers do when they sell / buy.
I just recently got into investing so my shares are still vulnerable to huge losses (as had happened to many during April Trump tariffs).
I’m not a financial advisor, but if you’ll need to use the money you’ve invested any time soon, then please take out your money now and don’t invest in something as volatile as stocks. Otherwise if you’re investing for the next 15+ years, then trying to time the market is generally a bad idea since the market is often irrational in the short run.
Bonds are a good option right now if you have medium-low risk tolerance. Interest rates are relatively high and prices will probably be rising if this recession comes as we all expect.
Thanks for the advice. I have been looking at other savings type account including bonds. I have been shopping around as well for other financial accounts with high interest rates. My country’s banks don’t offer high interest rates unlike other countries.
Do it dot gif
The numbers are going to be cooked to a crisp under this admin.
The orange stain got it right “It’s a price reduction of 1500%”, let’s do the math: a banana from Walmart is $1.10
With “reduction”
$1.10*1500/100 = $16.5
Depends what you’re measuring, there’s a bull market for bullshit.
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You might be right. About the term being meaningless that is.
