Zach Shrewsbury faces an improbable task to replace the conservative Democrat in the face of a Republican onslaught – but he won’t be put off
The party can’t find a candidate further to the right than Manchin, and Manchin isn’t seeking re-election because he knows he can no longer win.
Moving to the right has failed. Even if Shrewsbury loses, and I’m so fucking delighted to say this, he’s the best candidate you have. If he doesn’t win, it’s because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn’t get their first choice and didn’t want to vote blue no matter who.
If he does win, centrists were lying about progressives not being able to win red states.
Centrists have always lied about progressives being able to win in red states. The key in WV (and most red states) is a heavy emphasis on worker power and advancing organized labor.
You forgot about gun rights. But nobody wants to talk about that… And I’ll get down voted for mentioning it.
They would need to take a Midwestern stance on firearms most likely. Tbh a socialist would likely fit the role nicely. As the saying goes, “you get your guns back when you move far enough left”
May I ask you to expand on that? What stance do Midwesterners take on gun rights?
Also, oddly I didn’t get downvoted.
The Midwest has a weird stance on guns in general. Even the most staunch liberals in the Midwest oppose “assault-style weapon” bans. The emphasis has been on raising the bar to ownership without heavy restrictions after reaching that bar.
From my experience, there’s also a very healthy gun safety culture. I have some friends that are dumber than a box of rocks, and even they never touch their guns after any kind of drinking or drug use. The restrictions on using guns as a minor mixed with the very popular activity of hunting means anyone that has any genuine interest in guns has at least 5 years of training before they can even purchase a gun.
I agree with all of this.
To be clear though a minor has 5 years of training before they can purchase a firearm am I understanding that correctly?
It’s a bit of extrapolation, my bad. The Midwest (or at least my state) doesn’t allow anyone under the age of 12 to go hunting with a firearm. At the age of 12, the kid must graduate a 6 week state-ran hunting/firearm safety course. After that, they must be within a certain distance of a legal guardian at all times if the gun is loaded. Because of the instilled safety culture, safety is also enforced by the guardian. They can purchase a gun at age 18.
Also, oddly I didn’t get downvoted.
its a legit question. I also want to see the the parent poster says, but I tend to agree
socialist rifle association is a thing and I personally know strongly left of center peeps that are protective of their gun rights for all the obvious reasons you might care to think of. makes sense in many ways.
I think I’m just used to the other site and getting down voted for any mention of gun rights support.
I’m aware of SRA and dig what I’ve seen them do near Tucson. Maybe I should join.
Centrists have always lied about progressives being able to win in red states.
I hope he has direct funding from individual small donations. If he relies on party funding, they’ll yank the rug out from under him like they did with Vallejo and then gleefully announce that progressives can’t win.
I hope he goes to the DSA for funding. They’re the best socialist org equipped to fund a campaign, CPUSA simply doesn’t have the money.
I just hope he doesn’t rely on the Democratic Party. I’ve seen how that ends.
If he doesn’t win, it’s because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn’t get their first choice and didn’t want to vote blue no matter who.
No, it means Trump voters refused to vote for him when enough of them were ok with voting for a centrist Democrat.
69% of West Virginia voted for Trump. You cannot win without at least some of them. We shall see if a self described Socialist can get enough of them but it doesn’t look good.
No, it means Trump voters refused to vote for him when enough of them were ok with voting for a centrist Democrat.
Already addressed that. Manchin’s not seeking re-election because he knows that centrist Democrats’ only strategy of moving to the right has failed.
But you claimed that Shrewsbury losing would be because centrist Democrats didn’t come out to vote for him and that’s just not (necessarily) the case. Any Democrat needs all Democrats to win in West Virginia, but they also need much more than that. That is why a centrist Democrat like Manchin had a chance to win multiple times in the state. That strategy isn’t “failed,” it’s the only reason we’re even talking about a Democratic Senator from West Virginia.
If there is an alternative strategy that can win West Virginia as a Socialist Democrat, it would truly be unprecedented, that would absolutely cause a big shift for political strategy in the party. But a Socialist Democrat losing in West Virginia doesn’t prove anything, that’s the obvious outcome everyone expects.
Your god is leaving because he knows he can no longer win, and there’s no one who is as big a sellout as he is to replace him.
Moving to the right has failed. I get that you want to keep doing it, but it’s failed.
You don’t have to be a fan of Manchin to know his way is the only way a Democrat could win in West Virginia.
Him choosing not to run for Senate again doesn’t mean he didn’t win the seat 3 times. It did work. He is currently in the Senate. Shrewsbury hasn’t gotten a single vote yet, let’s pump the brakes on assuming his strategy is better, let alone actually able to win.
You don’t have to be a fan of Manchin to know his way is the only way a Democrat could win in West Virginia.
Was the only way. He’s not running, and there’s no one in the party to his right. The party can move left or abandon the state entirely.
I get that Shrewsbury isn’t your first choice, but vote blue no matter who.
I would absolutely vote for Shrewsbury in a general election if that was the choice in front of me, and I wouldn’t even complain relentlessly about “voting blue no matter who” because I know it is indeed the best way to accomplish my preferred political goals.
I follow your logic to a point. There is obviously a potential candidate who is to the left of Manchin while not being as far left as Shrewsbury, they just haven’t declared a candidacy yet.
If the Democrats end up nominating a socialist in West Virginia, they chose the “abandon the state entirely” option.
There’s a fair few who don’t vote at all anymore. Also, many Trump voters did so because it was a chance to get away from establishment politics. They could as easily see the same thing in a socialist candidate.
West Virginia has pretty equal numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans (36.5% & 36.8% respectively) so this will be a battle over turn out and convincing the remaining voters. We’ll see where his numbers are in six months.
Comparing party registration is a useless exercise. In states with open or semi-closed primaries unaffiliated/independent is always going to be a sizable bloc, and those voters almost always vote with one party or another (i.e. they’re not truly independent swing voters who can be swayed). Just because WV has a huge chunk of independent voters doesn’t mean the partisan lean of voters is anything close to even. West Virginia is an R+22 state, and the battle will be much less about turnout than it is about messaging and recapturing the attention of the working class.
this will be a battle over turn out
And I fully intend to hold centrist Democrats responsible for their turnout or lack thereof. The party is as entitled to their votes now as it was when it was demanding progressives’ votes for Manchin. And I’m not expecting the candidate to do a fucking thing to please centrists. They’re not Republicans. That was enough when it was Manchin. Remember, progressives vote with the party 95% of the time!
Bernie took w Virginia over Hillary, I think if he raises enough money and communicates his message well people will respond to him. My gut says that Jim Justice will get the Republican nomination and he will be a difficult candidate to beat. He’s won governor races as a Democrat and a Republican. Trump likes justice and Trump won west Virginia handedly. The odds are stacked against Shrewsbury but I still think he has a good chance if he can establish his own story and not let justice paint him as some crazy Marxist.
Maybe. But the centrists will need to vote blue no matter who, like they’ve been screaming at any progressive who is less than pleased with people like Manchin.
We’ll see. Turn out for the last election was the best since 1960. I think turn out will go down next year unfortunately. I truly hope I’m wrong. But I think next year is going to be a democratic massacre. People like Shrewsbury might actually turn that around. Who knows.
People like Shrewsbury might actually turn that around. Who knows.
Well, it’s clear that people like Manchin can’t.
Joe manchin did win three Senate races he was also a secretary of state and governor of West Virginia. That’s a lot of wins for a Democrat in West Virginia where Trump beat Biden by something like 39%. I’m not trying to tell you to like him or anything but that’s impressive to me.
If he doesn’t win, it’s because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn’t get their first choice and didn’t want to vote blue no matter who.
Why do you think that?
West Virginia used to vote Democrat, but has swung pretty hard right in recent years.
The last time the state voted Democrat in a presidential election was for Bill Clinton in 1996, who got 51.51% of the vote. Obama only got 35% of the vote in 2012, and neither Hillary nor Biden got over 30%.
Currently, Manchin is the only Democrat left in statewide office. Everyone else either died or retired, or they switched parties.
Why do you think that the only possible explanation for Shrewsbury losing is centrist Democrats not ‘voting vote no matter who’ instead of Republicans outnumbering Democrats in the state?
It’s a little silly to declare that no matter what the outcome, the test proves your case.
Really? Up until now, every time a centrist is protected by the party, we’re told that it’s because progressives can’t win. Every time a centrist loses, it’s because progressives stay home.
If the test seems silly or unfair now, it was silly and unfair when centrists were using it, and you had no complaints then.
Every time a centrist loses, it’s because progressives stay home.
I don’t recall ever agreeing with an argument this silly but you seem fairly confident I had no complaints about it.
If you’ve never noticed it, you haven’t been paying attention for the past 8 years.
You misunderstand me. I am saying I never agreed with it.
Though, honestly, there is something very refreshing about someone who is willing to propose something (a nonsense test) and then declare that it is the exact same as another test with which they disagree.
Either this test was nonsense and proved nothing when the mean ol’ centrists were doing it and still means absolutely nothing when you declare it or that the centrists have been correct all this time and you get to be correct once too. Either way, it’s silly but kind of adorable in that childish way.
Edit: Also, I know it might be inconceivable to you but I’ve actually been paying attention to politics for longer than 8 years. I know, before trump made it cool. Weird huh?
Though, honestly, there is something very refreshing about someone who is willing to propose something (a nonsense test) and then declare that it is the exact same as another test with which they disagree.
Hey, if you want to deny that centrists have been both declaring that progressives can’t win in red states and also blaming progressives when centrists lose, it’s fine that you want to deny the lived experience of every progressive. Gaslighting and condescension are what centrists fall back on every time they’re wrong, after all.
if you want to deny that
Where did I deny it?
All I’m saying is that it’s adorable that you hate this narrative until you find an occasion that suits you, at which point, oh obviously this narrative is true.
So, either the centrists have been correct all this time or you are just excited to have a chance to spout the same nonsense. Either way, not really a position worth taking seriously.
I doubt it, but I’m happy to see him try.
That would be amazing. Wishing this guy nothing but the best.
I think he’s trying to be WV’s John Fetterman. Good on him. I hope he can pull it off.
Let’s be honest. He’ll need to be a lot better than Fetterman. Pennsylvania is much bluer than west Virginia and Dr Oz was a pathetic candidate. I really hope Fetterman is laying a solid reelection foundation right now because his reelection run will probably be more difficult. Jim Justice is known statewide, he’s wealthy, and has won the governor’s mansion as a Democrat and as a Republican.
I doubt PA will be more red in 6 years. It’s always been a tight race, but besides Trump, it’s generally been tight in the dems favor. When the GOP held onto Toomey in '16, it was because the dems put up such a shitty candidate (oddly enough, that’s because Fetterman took the progressive vote and the most conservative dem won the primary that year)
As an incumbent Fetterman will have advantages and his reelection is a Long way off but he really should have clobbered Dr Oz and he got 51% of the vote? It’s enough but I feel like it should have been more. I’ll be pulling for him that’s for sure though.
Did you watch the debate? Winning by the margin he did was impressive
I think if Shrewsbury gets people out to vote, he has a chance. WV has low voter turnout, maybe its electorate could mobilize for a socialist.
I highly highly doubt it, but sure, he is precisely the type of candidate that should be running instead of Manchins.
Yeah don’t use the S-word, but lean hard into workers reform, pro-union, safety nets, etc.
Basically run on those ideals but don’t use that term.
Yep people love socialism it’s the word that turns them off. It’s unfortunate because it the years of propaganda that as mad socialism a bad word when socialism in practice is great.
Unions and safety nets are not socialism.
depending on the definition you’re using everything is socialism.
They are not socialism necessarily, but they are a step towards worker equality and worker’s rights.
Sure but you don’t need to be a socialist to support unions. There’s no reason to ever run a socialist in fucking WV lol
Well I think they have pretty low voter turnout, likely because there are no interesting candidates. When they democrats are running Manchin, it’s pretty disappointing. A socialist might actually get people out to vote.
That said, my family is from West Virginia. Despite the state being pretty much saved by unions, most of them are even anti-union without open socialism. I don’t know any younger people there though, so who knows…
I don’t think it’s a bad idea to test it out to find out in the primaries. Worst case, he fails and is forgotten about. Nothing lost. Best case, he motivates more progressive voters to actually participate because there’s something meaningful to vote on.
Nothing lost.
You mean except a Senate seat? Dems currently hold that seat and have a razor thin senate majority
Him running in the primaries will not cost them the senate seat. Either he’s successful in the primaries, and then I assume he’s got enough enthusiastic support to potentially win, or he loses the primary and someone else runs.
If you can, donate to his campaign. I’m kicking him a five spot every week from here on out.
Glad to see him running, but an incredible longshot with how corrupt our state politics are.
Are people you know talking about him right now?
Nope.
That tells me more than anything else. He needs to get his message out of he wants to have a chance.
Not if he actually describes himself as a socialist.
His page says that he has helped organize multiple campaigns from Seattle to WV, focusing on the community driven issues that are forgotten by both parties.
He’s an activist and successful rabble rouser, which is why they are painting him as a socialist.
Why would Patriotic Republicans vote for an Ex Marine who isn’t backed by Corporate Interests?
*former Marine
They know exactly what they did with that title tbh
What is the distinction?
there’s a saying like “once a marine, always a marine”, so there’s no such thing as an ex-marine. Or something.
Yep, that’s it.
Huh. https://www.marines.com/life-as-a-marine/life-in-the-marine-corps/once-a-marine-always-a-marine.html
Apparently we’re Marine Veterans, not ex or former.
ADAPT. Looking forward to the hardliners that refuse to be relabelled.
Sure. He can definitely win.
The idea that we exist on a political spectrum complexly misrepresents the political reality we live in.
God I hope so.
Can’t use the s word in West Virginia. Best you’re gonna get is a corporate stooge democrat like Manchin.
Can’t use the s word in West Virginia. Best you’re gonna get is a corporate stooge democrat like Manchin.
This is the complete misunderstanding of American politics that the DNC and DCCC have been trying to convince us of since 2008, in-spite of our lying eyes.
In your version of events, why did WV vote for trump by some 40 points?
Because he promised them he’d bring back coal so they can die from black lung like daddy and Pop-Pop did!
So our socialist democrat would make the same promise and do their best to stymie any climate change legislation? Or has trump decided coal is a bad idea?
You back labor unions and push for them to get into green energy jobs constructing the parts for infrastructure we need as we faze out coal, oil, and gas. There is big money to be made and no chance for black lung.
Whew, Dems just gotta do the small task of convincing an electorate the backbone of their ENTIRE ECONOMY for generations is dead and needs to be replaced, while the other side says they’ll back it until the planet is dust.
Seems a simple enough solve if we throw enough buzzwords at it! Please move to WV and run on it, Dems are losing hard without that strat
In other words, you push for pretty much exactly Biden’s plan… But hey, he only lost by 40 points.
Manchin’s leaving because moving to the right has failed.
The only thing any centrist knows how to do has failed. Centrists just admitted they can’t win in West Virginia. So unless you finally have a plan other than the failed “move to the right” plan, let a better candidate give it a shot.
The rightmost Democrat can’t win, and your party can’t move to the right anymore.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Charles Town, West Virginia, was where state authorities executed the abolitionist John Brown after he led an attack on a federal armory a few miles down the road in Harpers Ferry, a pivotal moment in the lead-up to the civil war.
In recent years he has used his power as a swing vote in Congress to stop several of Joe Biden’s legislative priorities – attracting the ire of progressives and prompting Shrewsbury to mount a primary challenge.
Political analysts do not expect voters to elect the Democratic candidate – whoever that turns out to be – and predict Manchin will be replaced by either Governor Jim Justice or Congressman Alex Mooney, the two leading Republicans in the Senate race.
In the years that followed, he guarded the perimeter at the US base in Guantánamo Bay, and was deployed to Japan, Malaysia and South Korea before eventually moving to Seattle and then returning to West Virginia, where he realized how bereft his home state was of the prosperity he saw elsewhere in the country and overseas.
Since 2020, Shrewsbury has helped towns dig out from flooding, door-knocked in the narrow Appalachian valleys – known as hollers – to find out what residents were looking for from the state legislature, and talked to mayors and city councils about the opportunities presented by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivizes consumer usage of renewable energy, including home solar panels.
Despite the state’s conservative leanings, Sam Workman, the director of the Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs at West Virginia University, believed Manchin may have had a path to victory had he decided to run.
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