Ukraine and European leaders agreed on Saturday to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from 12 May with the backing of US president Donald Trump, threatening president Vladimir Putin with new “massive” sanctions if he failed to comply.
The announcement was made by the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine after a meeting in Kyiv, during which they held a phone call with Trump.
I’m getting flashbacks to Jan-Feb 2022. That’s what people thought about Ukraine despite intelligence reports warning that Putin is making moves.
Of course, Poland is in EU and NATO, so it’s definitely in a better position, but keep in mind that all deterrents have limits — as we speak there’s a full-on war being fought between two nuclear powers.
The promises of an alliance treaty are, at the end of the day, just that: promises. Posturing to scare off potential attackers. Just because we’ve never seen someone actually call that bluff, doesn’t mean it will never happen.
A guy like Putin could gamble that NATO countries won’t send troops to Poland because they’ll make similar calculations as towards Ukraine: that it’s not worth risking nuclear war. He already sees how NATO countries right now are behaving, pussyfooting around giving aid to Ukraine, so he could believe they will approach Article 5 with the same limp attitude. Especially now that USA is talking about leaving NATO and antagonizing Europe like never before.
Plus, all the “why should we help Ukraine” type rhetoric coming out of the European MAGA-aligned sphere is easily adaptable to Poland: “Why should we help Poland? Just because they’re in NATO? I’m not a globalist, I look after the interest of my own country first because I’m a patriot. I don’t want to send my people to fight NATO’s wars. I refuse to die for the globalists!”
This is exactly what the far right is speaking here.
Then there must be pushback from the people who know better. Raising the alarm is not brainwashing — the brainwashing is when MAGA types tell people there’s no threat.
Also, Europe needs to get its shit together and stop pulling punches with regard to helping Ukraine.