- cross-posted to:
- donoperinfo@infosec.pub
- cross-posted to:
- donoperinfo@infosec.pub
This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/ukraine by /u/nyckidd on 2025-05-08 14:43:37+00:00.
Hope everyone reading this is doing well today!
Video of the Week:
https://reddit.com/link/1khrum1/video/o3wfblm6ekze1/player
- This video, taken by a Ukrainian naval drone, shows a Russian Su-30 multirole fighter being shot down over the Black Sea by an American supplied Aim-9 missile launched by the drone recording the video, or possibly a different drone. Ukrainian leadership claimed that they shot down another Russian plane at practically the same time, in the same way. This is the first time in history an unmanned vehicle has shot down a fighter jet. The fact that they apparently destroyed two means they must have really caught the Russians with their pants down.
Maps:
Sumy last week:
Sumy this week:
- No advances by Russian forces here this week. I’ve seen some reports that Ukrainians made another advance into Kursk here, but it’s not on the map, so isn’t confirmed.
Kupiansk last week:
Kupiansk this week:
- No changes here.
Lyman last week:
Lyman this week:
- Russian forces made very small advances north of Siversk and northeast of Lyman.
Chasiv Yar last week:
Chasiv Yar this week:
- Russia took a reasonably substantial chunk of territory north of Chasiv Yar this week. Remember that this screenshot is more zoomed in than the others, so this looks bigger than it is. Still, it’s the first change we’ve seen here in a while. Fortunately the advance was not actually within the city, so it’s unclear if this represents any kind of real change in the status quo here.
Pokrovsk last week:
Pokrovsk this week:
- Russia advanced southwest of Pokrovsk and also made a major breakthrough of Ukrainian lines between Pokrovsk and Toretsk. This is the first breakthrough we’ve seen here in a while. Strong Ukrainian units have been sent to contain the advance, but if it gets much further it could seriously imperil the fight for Toretsk. Russia has been pushing very hard here for quite some time, so it’s not unexpected that they would finally see some success, but still, it’s not good that this happened.
Zaporizhzhia last week:
Zaporizhzhia this week:
- Russia took a chunk of territory west of Velyka Novosilka, no changes here besides that.
Events this week:
- A wave of hundreds of Ukrainian drones hit targets all over Russia yesterday, shutting down the Moscow airport right before the Russian Victory Day parade, which is scheduled to take place tomorrow. Military airfields near Moscow were also hit, as were key industrial sites including the biggest producer of fiber optic cable in Russia, which sustained a direct hit and major damage. Drones using fiber optic cables have become crucially important all over the front, so hitting the factory that produces the cables is very clever.
- Russia responded with their own wave of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, killing civilians in several different places. Ukrainian air defense is being stretched to the limit at the moment, though they are set to receive more Patriot batteries soon, and hopefully enough interceptor missiles to allow them to engage more targets.
- Probably due to fear of Ukrainian strikes at the parade itself, several world leaders who were set to attend have dropped out, including the president of Azerbaijan, which has fairly close ties with Russia.
- The Trump administration has shown even more frustration with Putin and Russia, with Trump saying Putin wants “all of Ukraine,” and JD Vance saying that “the Russians are demanding too much.” Russia did have a real chance to play the Trump administration and get a relatively favorable peace deal out of them, but they are too rigid and beholden to their maximalist war goals to take advantage of that opportunity, and now I do think they’ve missed their chance.
- Reuters is also reporting that the cut off of US aid to Ukraine that happened after the Oval Office fight between Trump and Zelensky was not ordered by Trump. Apparently Defense Secretary and known idiot Pete Hegseth ordered it on his own, before being overruled a week later. Hegseth has got to go, and this is just the latest reason why.
- Staunchly pro-Ukraine German leader Friedrick Merz was officially inaugurated as Chancellor, after unexpectedly losing the first vote. He is keeping on Boris Pistorious as defense minister, who is one of the biggest champions of Ukraine in Europe. I expect that German military support for Ukraine will grow dramatically in the next year.
- Czech leader and extremely strong Ukraine supporter Petr Pavel announced that the Czech initiative to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine has grown even further, with potentially up to 1.8 million total shells being delivered by the end of this year, an increase of 300,000 over what was planned before. This initiative has been hugely successful and is one of the biggest reasons why Ukrainian artillery has been much closer to parity with the Russians so far this year.
- French news reported that the production of the highly capable AASM Hammer precision guided bombs has reached 1,200 per year, with every single one of those bombs due to be supplied to Ukraine. The Hammer has a very good inertial guidance system that allows it to still be accurate even in an environment with lots of jamming and EW. It’s been a huge help for Ukraine, and the fact that France is rapidly scaling up production and sending all of them to Ukraine is really good.
- Global economic pressure has led to falling oil prices, which will impact Russia very negatively. The price that Russian oil is selling at is already 40% below the target their budget set, and OPEC + is close to allowing members to further increase production, which would of course send oil prices even lower.
Oryx Numbers:
- Total Russian vehicle losses: 21,648 (+98)
- Russian tank losses: 3,970 (+23)
- Russian IFV losses: 5,800 (+16)
- Russian SPG losses: 928 (+5)
- Russian SAM losses: 323 (+1)
- Russian Naval losses: 28 (+0)
- Russian Aircraft losses: 140 (+1)
- Russian Helicopter losses: 155 (+0)
- Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 8,805 (+54)
- Ukrainian tank losses: 1,167 (+8)
- Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,353 (+3)
- Ukrainian IMV losses: 902 (+8)
- Ukrainian SPG losses: 542 (+8)
- Ukrainian SAM losses: 171 (+0)
Reasonably light losses on both sides this week. It is pretty unusual, however, to see more tanks lost than IFVs on both sides. I’ve also noticed that Ukrainian SPG losses have been fairly high the past few months, though that could be in part because they are now producing many Bohdana SPGs domestically, meaning they don’t have to be quite as careful with them.
As usual, thanks for reading, and if you have any questions, I’m happy to answer them!
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