I’ve been reading up on the tariffs that were imposed during the Trump administration and I keep seeing mixed reviews about their effectiveness. On one hand, they seemed to protect certain domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive; on the other hand, there’s a lot of talk about higher prices for consumers and retaliatory measures from trading partners.

The thing is, these tariffs aren’t exactly popular among everyone. If we were to look back 1 year out, 2 years out, and even a few more years down the line, how will we actually know if this was a good move?

Surely there are some metrics or outcomes that can help us evaluate their success or failure. I guess it’s not as simple as checking stock market performance alone, although that’s probably part of it, right?

Is it primarily about looking at changes in trade balances with countries like China, or do we need to consider the broader economic impacts, such as job growth within certain industries? And how much weight should be given to the political ramifications, like strengthened relationships (or tensions) with trading partners?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on what metrics or indicators would help determine whether these tariffs were indeed a beneficial strategy. Thanks in advance for any insights!

  • whyrat@lemmy.worldEnglish
    4·
    18 hours ago

    If you’re looking for convincing arguments; read through the responses from this panel of experts: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/tariffs/ (from 2024) and more recently: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/tariffs-reciprocal-and-retaliatory-2/

    Many of the responding professors provide detail on why they vote a certain way. For example to the 3rd part of the question from 2024: “The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.” you get replies like:

    Protectionism via tariffs creates well-understood aggregate losses in efficiency. This is so even if China “unfairly” subsidizes its steel. Political motivations aside, actual distributional impacts are modest, ill targeted, and better handled with other more direct tax tools.

    With links to further background information: https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/CW 04-15-22.pdf & http://www.econ.ucla.edu/pfajgelbaum/tradewar_1203.pdf with more detail to read.

    Not sure if this will convince you or not; but it’s at least a cache of relevant information.

    • yarr@feddit.nlOPEnglish
      3·
      15 hours ago

      Not sure if this will convince you or not

      I don’t think I worded my original post properly because I feel convinced already. I was just looking for a way to measure up the effects of this idea. If we are a country dependent on importing goods and we make them more expensive, it stands to reason that we either stop getting those goods (doesn’t seem easy…) OR we just deal with the price, and that doesn’t seem easy either.

      I just thought this is odd… like if I wanted to propose a tax on bicycles, we could talk how many bicycles there are in the USA, if this would make sense, etc. but that’s an actual discussion. Most of the people in this thread are just asserting it’s a bad idea and either don’t know the “why” themselves, or just don’t want to say.