I’ve had a handful of conversations with trumpians who think this is all 4d geopolitical macroeconomic chess. And every single one of them are essentially convinced that some weird, bastardized, reductive model of global economics that exists in the collective headspace of the maga-sphere is The Way It Works. And it simply doesnt work that way. They’re convinced everyone else in the world HAS to do business with us, when that couldn’t be further from the truth. NATO allies have reconsidered buying our military hardware, for fucks sake. Sure, it’ll be painful for them for a bit, but a lot of our former allies now (correctly) view us as a clear and present danger. This is outside the bounds of the post-cold war context that we’ve existed in for several decades. This is a new era. This is the end of Pax Americana. And they don’t seem to be able to admit that it’s happening.
They’re convinced everyone else in the world HAS to do business with us
That seems to be a widespread opinion amongst a lot of the international elite. Germany thought Putin was never going to risk war because it would kill his European fossil fuel revenue and destroy his economy.
Then Putin himself did the same thing, thinking he could starve Europe in a fossil fuel winter.
For example, american car factories only make 70% of their capacity. European car factories currently export 50-60% of their product to the USA.
So if there is any idea with the tarriffs (debatable), it’s that the USA will have to grow domestic production (easy) while the rest of the world needs to shrink production (hard).
In other words, there are no other consumers rich enough to buy all this stuff.
Yes, I agree. Just as with the production/consumption disruption, the current US administration seems to be abandoning the Pax Americana commitments that led to a world of interrelations and dependencies that went beyond trade and economics. This has huge implications. The usa still has a very large military capacity, but the balance of power and what it is going to be used for…these are now in flux in a way we have not seen in living memory.
In a way, its the same logic being applied: that Europe or south America or whatever places are not capable of becoming a rival global power.
They can’t admit it because it’s an echo chamber. Trump tells them what they want to hear. They feel smarter for being validated by the president so they ignore the nagging voice that things aren’t going to plan because the only possible explanation is NOT that they were wrong and don’t understand these complex issues, but that even though they can’t see the full picture, they were right. Then all the other people in the same position agree that 4D chess is being played and they all voted a smart vote and the endorphins flood their brain again
I’ve had a handful of conversations with trumpians who think this is all 4d geopolitical macroeconomic chess. And every single one of them are essentially convinced that some weird, bastardized, reductive model of global economics that exists in the collective headspace of the maga-sphere is The Way It Works. And it simply doesnt work that way. They’re convinced everyone else in the world HAS to do business with us, when that couldn’t be further from the truth. NATO allies have reconsidered buying our military hardware, for fucks sake. Sure, it’ll be painful for them for a bit, but a lot of our former allies now (correctly) view us as a clear and present danger. This is outside the bounds of the post-cold war context that we’ve existed in for several decades. This is a new era. This is the end of Pax Americana. And they don’t seem to be able to admit that it’s happening.
That seems to be a widespread opinion amongst a lot of the international elite. Germany thought Putin was never going to risk war because it would kill his European fossil fuel revenue and destroy his economy.
Then Putin himself did the same thing, thinking he could starve Europe in a fossil fuel winter.
This is exactly what they think.
For example, american car factories only make 70% of their capacity. European car factories currently export 50-60% of their product to the USA.
So if there is any idea with the tarriffs (debatable), it’s that the USA will have to grow domestic production (easy) while the rest of the world needs to shrink production (hard).
In other words, there are no other consumers rich enough to buy all this stuff.
Be that as it may, when security considerations become involved - and they are now involved - economic matters largely take a back seat.
Yes, I agree. Just as with the production/consumption disruption, the current US administration seems to be abandoning the Pax Americana commitments that led to a world of interrelations and dependencies that went beyond trade and economics. This has huge implications. The usa still has a very large military capacity, but the balance of power and what it is going to be used for…these are now in flux in a way we have not seen in living memory.
In a way, its the same logic being applied: that Europe or south America or whatever places are not capable of becoming a rival global power.
They can’t admit it because it’s an echo chamber. Trump tells them what they want to hear. They feel smarter for being validated by the president so they ignore the nagging voice that things aren’t going to plan because the only possible explanation is NOT that they were wrong and don’t understand these complex issues, but that even though they can’t see the full picture, they were right. Then all the other people in the same position agree that 4D chess is being played and they all voted a smart vote and the endorphins flood their brain again
They’ll never admit it, because there’s a chance some liberal will say those 4 dreaded words: “I told you so.”