A large enough impulse could knock it onto an impact trajectory in 2028. “Large enough” would be absolutely gigantic though, and we have to catch up with it, making it quite impractical. It would be cheaper to just build some more multi-megaton nukes for the same effect.
That’s for changing the trajectory of the 2032 encounter by a few thousand km, not changing the 2028 encounter by 8 million km. And if we’re changing the 2032 encounter we can smack it as it goes by in 2028 instead of playing catch-up before then.
The one mentioned above is 2024 YR and is slated to pay a visit in 2032. The 2028 one is 1997 XF11, and poses no risk.
(But I was confused, too - I only looked up because of the 2028/2032 discrepancy. I made a joke to my wife about emailing a state senator and suggesting they fund a mission to knock the asteroid into earth, so that they can help their constituents by ensuring that they no longer have a state to be a senator over. 2028 is during their term, and god willing, 2032 won’t be.)
2024 YR4 has a close(ish) encounter with the Earth every 4 years; it will pass within 8 million km in 2028 before the very close pass/potential impact in 2032. You can see info for close encounters here.
A large enough impulse could knock it onto an impact trajectory in 2028. “Large enough” would be absolutely gigantic though, and we have to catch up with it, making it quite impractical. It would be cheaper to just build some more multi-megaton nukes for the same effect.
Having seen Scott Manley’s video on the topic, it seems well within the realm of possible.
That’s for changing the trajectory of the 2032 encounter by a few thousand km, not changing the 2028 encounter by 8 million km. And if we’re changing the 2032 encounter we can smack it as it goes by in 2028 instead of playing catch-up before then.
The one mentioned above is 2024 YR and is slated to pay a visit in 2032. The 2028 one is 1997 XF11, and poses no risk.
(But I was confused, too - I only looked up because of the 2028/2032 discrepancy. I made a joke to my wife about emailing a state senator and suggesting they fund a mission to knock the asteroid into earth, so that they can help their constituents by ensuring that they no longer have a state to be a senator over. 2028 is during their term, and god willing, 2032 won’t be.)
2024 YR4 has a close(ish) encounter with the Earth every 4 years; it will pass within 8 million km in 2028 before the very close pass/potential impact in 2032. You can see info for close encounters here.
Well, huh. TIL.
Serves me right for half remembering something and assuming the first search result explains it.