I’m reminded of this Nate Silver quote from the election:
Democrats, however — and here, I’m not referring so much Silver Bulletin subscribers but in the broader universe online — often get angry with you when you only halfway agree with them. And I really think this difference in personality profiles tells you a little something about why Trump won: Trump was happy to take on all comers, whereas with Democrats, disagreement on any hot-button topic (say, COVID school closures or Biden’s age) will have you cast out as a heretic. That’s not a good way to build a majority, and now Democrats no longer have one.
Not defending democrats at all, but didn’t Nate Silvers polling engine consistently favor democrats polls? I would say Democrats are loosing because they have created an echo-chamber (of which Nate is a part), in which alternatives are not allowed even if those alternatives are; we shouldn’t do a genocide in gaza or hey, actually the most accurate polls have consistently showed Harris losing. If they could actually listen to what their constituents want for once, maybe they could have a majority, but also if Nate Silver could stop inflating their polling they could get a realistic idea of how they are doing with their strategy of telling the proles how they should feel about the perfect, infallible Biden econony and potebtially readjust that strategy or run more popular candidates. 🤷🤷🤷
In 2024, Nate’s model accurately predicted the exact electoral map.
He doesn’t do any polling. He aggregates other pollsters, weights it based on past performance and then uses other factors (he calls them fundamentals) to produce an outcome. And I think it’s misguided to suggest that Democratic leadership is looking at Nate’s polls to reinforce their own positions.
It may even feel as though we’re Ping-Ponging between radically different futures, never quite certain what lies around the bend. Yet on the whole in 2024, polling did not experience much of a miss and had a reasonable year. Ms. Harris led by only one point in my final national polling average. And Donald Trump led in five of seven key states, albeit incredibly narrowly. The final polling averages were correct in 48 of 50 states.
The final Times/Siena national poll (including third-party candidates) had Mr. Trump one point ahead. There was plenty of data to support a Trump win.
Remember that the Biden campaign had an internal poll showing Trump winning ~48 states in a total landslide victory, but they maintained that Biden was the best candidate.
I am aware that he aggregates polls. But actually 2024 his model did so poorly that he said he is retiring that model(good riddance). His polling has been off since he predicted Obama was going to win and I am not sure why anybody needed a model for that outcome.
I’m reminded of this Nate Silver quote from the election:
Not defending democrats at all, but didn’t Nate Silvers polling engine consistently favor democrats polls? I would say Democrats are loosing because they have created an echo-chamber (of which Nate is a part), in which alternatives are not allowed even if those alternatives are; we shouldn’t do a genocide in gaza or hey, actually the most accurate polls have consistently showed Harris losing. If they could actually listen to what their constituents want for once, maybe they could have a majority, but also if Nate Silver could stop inflating their polling they could get a realistic idea of how they are doing with their strategy of telling the proles how they should feel about the perfect, infallible Biden econony and potebtially readjust that strategy or run more popular candidates. 🤷🤷🤷
In 2024, Nate’s model accurately predicted the exact electoral map.
He doesn’t do any polling. He aggregates other pollsters, weights it based on past performance and then uses other factors (he calls them fundamentals) to produce an outcome. And I think it’s misguided to suggest that Democratic leadership is looking at Nate’s polls to reinforce their own positions.
Here’s a quote from a column he wrote for the NYT
Remember that the Biden campaign had an internal poll showing Trump winning ~48 states in a total landslide victory, but they maintained that Biden was the best candidate.
I am aware that he aggregates polls. But actually 2024 his model did so poorly that he said he is retiring that model(good riddance). His polling has been off since he predicted Obama was going to win and I am not sure why anybody needed a model for that outcome.