Ultimately, the amount of money available to advance the green economy may be too much for any state to resist. “Those are jobs and those are investments that are going on in communities, whether they’re red or blue or purple,” said Matt Petersen, president and CEO of the Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator. “That’s something that for a governor, a legislature, when push comes to shove, are they really going to want that to go away?”

Beyond his efforts to roll back the IRA, Trump is expected to take aim at electric vehicle mandates and state efforts to restrict tailpipe emissions. California — which would have the world’s fifth largest economy if it were a country — wields particular influence over the automobile market. The state has long regulated tailpipe emissions, but the first Trump administration barred the state from doing so, a move the Biden administration subsequently overturned. Even while Trump was still in office in 2019, BMW, Ford, Honda, and Volkswagen signed a voluntary agreement recognizing the state’s legal authority to set its own standard. In March, Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Dodge, and Jeep, formally committed to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission vehicles even if the state “is unable to enforce its standards as a result of judicial or federal action.”

Other robust state-level climate policies have advanced in the last year. In Massachusetts, for example, lawmakers approved a climate bill in November that puts guardrails on gas pipelines, streamlines renewables, and allows gas utilities to use geothermal energy — which enjoys bipartisan support, unlike wind and solar. Voters in Washington rejected a challenge to a landmark law that’s raised money to fight climate change. And California voters signed off on $10 billion to fund climate projects.

And despite the incoming Trump administration’s promises to ramp up fossil fuel production, states could spur still more climate action, Jay Inslee, who was governor of Washington until today, said during a press conference at COP29 in November. “I can say this unequivocally,” said Inslee, who leads America Is All In, a coalition of private and governmental leaders fighting climate change. “We know that despite the election of Donald Trump, the incredible momentum, the incredible dynamic growth, the incredible political support that preexisted his previous administration will continue, and will continue unabated.”