@mattblaze@federate.social @CStamp@mastodon.social @60sRefugee@spacey.space @nyrath@spacey.space @simplenomad@rigor-mortis.nmrc.org

Students in my class play a simple game called the escalation game which I started a couple of years back after physicist Max Tegmark claimed there was a 1/6 chance of a nuclear war starting over Ukraine.

The first time we played we had 1/7 teams end in nuclear war. This year half of the teams ended with a nuclear war.

It’s more about the competitive nature of the players than a real estimate of any probability of course.

It was very convenient that the first year my boss was in the class and I was being evaluated for my teaching abilities and we got 1/7 vs. Tegmark’s 1/6. Phew!

See Ellsberg’s book The Doomsday Machine.

PS Most estimates of the annual probability are lower, generally below 1% but of course not zero.