FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • Mike D.
    3•5 months ago

    I only trust the casinos at this point. What are the current odds?

    • mozzOP
      6•5 months ago

      Betus is giving 2:1 odds on the Democrat, I.e. they think the Democrats have a 33% chance to win.

    • @Crashumbc@lemmy.worldEnglish
      4•5 months ago

      Lol, although they’re probably as accurate as any poll.

      Casinos are only worried about the juice, they could care less about the outcome of a bet.

      • mozzOP
        2•5 months ago

        Honestly, casinos have a reason to try to get it right. When pollsters get it wrong nothing really happens. I more or less agree with the logic of just looking at the casino odds as as much of a thing to trust as anything else.

        Also, it’s apparently illegal to bet on the presidential election in the US, which I didn’t know.

      • Mike D.
        1•5 months ago

        Damn it, you are right. Casinos only goal is to make profit from the bets. The current odds only indicate bets already made.