FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • Jesus
    7•4 months ago

    Polls for a close race are never going to be great. That’s just how statistics works.

    America is fairly split down the middle nationally, and winning or losing can come down to who gets people to turnout on election night in a couple purple states.

    Even with Clinton V Trump, the polls were not wrong. They showed a close race, and 538 literally said that it was a 4 sided die roll with Trump on a side.