FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • AutoTL;DRBEnglish
    2•4 months ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:

    Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

    It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.

    In a post on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the flurry of swing-state polls that show Biden is encroaching upon Trump’s lead.

    In the week before the shooting, national polls had Trump as the favorite to win the White House, leading narrowly in the six key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump are tied among registered voters.

    Biden’s fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.

    The original article contains 683 words, the summary contains 168 words. Saved 75%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!