This is what’s keeping me up at night, and also exactly why I think all the predictions of four or five hundred seats for Labour are overblown.
This is what’s keeping me up at night, and also exactly why I think all the predictions of four or five hundred seats for Labour are overblown.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Dark nights of disappointment in suburban leisure centres haunt Labour nightmares, with candidates and activists cruelly betrayed by late swings and polling errors: 1970, 1992, 2015 – every generation of Labourites bears its scars.
Labour’s vote share has softened a little in recent polling, though the headline lead remains exceptionally strong, as Tory numbers have sagged just as much or more.
Yet a move leftwards to try to secure progressive tactical votes also comes with risks, potentially alienating more moderate Tory switchers whose anger at the government does not easily translate into affection for the opposition.
Such voters may already be wary about handing a blank cheque to a dominant Starmer government and they may yet reconsider their choice to switch if Labour makes a late move leftwards.
Low turnout may be a bigger risk to Labour at this election, as the party’s support is particularly strong in groups such as the young and the struggling, who are often hard to get to the polls, while what remains of Tory strength is concentrated among pensioners, who are not.
At the moment, a universally reviled government provides a source of unity and a target for anger, helping to paint over cracks in a broad and unwieldy electoral coalition.
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