The posts are ominous.
“Pick a side, or YOU are next,” wrote conservative talkshow host Dan Bongino on the Truth Social media platform in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s 34 felony convictions.
The replies were even more so.
“Dan, seriously now,” one user wrote in response to Bongino. “I see no way out of all this mess without bloodshed. When you can rig an election, then weaponize the government and the courts against a former President, what other alternative is there? I’m almost 70 and would rather die than live in tyranny.”
That’s a common version of how many people on the US right reacted to the ex-president’s verdict, drawing on a “mirror world” where Trump is seen as the selfless martyr to powerful state forces and Joe Biden is the dangerous autocrat wielding the justice system as his own personal plaything and a threat to US democracy.
Calls for revenge, retribution and violence littered the rightwing internet as soon as Trump’s guilty verdict came down, all predicated on the idea that the trial had been a sham designed to interfere with the 2024 election. Some posted online explicitly saying it was time for hangings, executions and civil wars.
One thing to note is that Republicans have been talking like this for years. Minion Death Cult (tagline “The World Is Ending. Your Uncle’s Facebook Feed Is Responsible. We’re Documenting it.”) have coined “Minion’s Law”, which is that right-wing comments on a news story will have at least one person calling for civil war.
Does this mean we are at zero risk for a second civil war? Of course not. But finding people online calling for civil war isn’t sufficient cause to be worried; there needs to be at least some evidence of mobilization, as there was leading up to January 6th (for instance).
Are you under the impression that claiming election fraud and presidential felony convictions are routine?
Well obviously presidential felony convictions aren’t. But election fraud? Sure, republicans have been claiming that to some degree or other for a long time. See for example the false claims that Trump would have won the popular vote if it weren’t for undocumented immigrants voting en masse.
In any case, the specific claim I was making was that calls for civil war on social media are routine. Maybe they’re more serious this time! But maybe look for concrete plans rather than vague threats.
I think it’s reasonable to be a bit worried considering the context: several seriously fucked up factors which are unprecedented. A coup attempt already happened, and now he’s been convicted of felonies after being “cheated out of the election”.
Yep it was similar during the Obama administration with conspiracies of many types that featured people talking about revolution and civil war.
How many insurrections happened during Obama’s term?
I didn’t notice any, but that’s not what we were talking about. The specific item of discussion was “calls for civil war” which we observed many of during the Obama term.
I think if you’re trying to estimate the odds of an impending civil war, you’ll do a much better job if you take into account how widespread calls for it are, rather than simply noting that there are always a few calls for civil war.