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    10 months ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:


    A research team led by University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann is predicting the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will produce the most named storms on record, fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters and an expected shift from El Niño to La Niña.

    “The unprecedented warmth in the tropical Atlantic right now — which we expect to persist through the hurricane season — is the dominant driving factor behind our prediction,” Mann said in an email.

    Ocean temperatures leaped into record-warm territory more than a year ago — linked to a combination of human-caused climate change and El Niño, and have remained there ever since, staying at a record high for 417 straight days.

    Although El Niño boosts global ocean temperatures, it tends to produce wind patterns in the Atlantic that suppress tropical storm development.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a marine heat wave, or sea surface temperatures well above normal, to continue in the tropical Atlantic through at least September.

    Led by Mann, who is famous for his “hockey stick” chart depicting a sudden rise in global temperatures over the last century, the research group has issued seasonal hurricane forecasts since 2009.


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