As of Friday, at least 31 cases of measles have been reported so far this year across Canada, according to a CBC News tally of provincial and regional figures released by public health teams.

That’s already the largest annual total since 2019 and more than double the number of cases reported last year, as medical experts fear the number will rise while more Canadians travel in and out of the country this month for March break.

New projections from a team at Simon Fraser University (SFU) in British Columbia show the grim possibilities. The modelling suggests that vaccine coverage of less than 85 per cent can lead to dozens of cases within small communities — or even hundreds if immunization rates are lower.

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    As measles cases keep appearing in more parts of the country, new projections suggest there’s a high chance Canada may experience a “sizable outbreak” — with anywhere from dozens to thousands of people infected if the disease strikes communities with low vaccination rates.

    The modelling identified one example scenario: In a 1,000-person community with a 75 per cent vaccination level — and slower public health efforts to track and isolate cases — a measles outbreak could grow to a median size of 100 or so people, the team found.

    In some cases, that could mean people playing catch-up after delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, or new immigrants who may be coming from parts of the world where children receive only one dose of the MMR shot, which doesn’t offer protection as robust as two rounds.

    The region — which includes 53 member states in Europe and Central Asia — reported nearly 60,000 total infections last year, resulting in thousands of hospitalizations and 10 measles-related deaths, the World Health Organization announced in late February.

    While pandemic disruptions may have curbed vaccine uptake, immunization rates didn’t trigger the return of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles until more recently, given the public health interventions that were in place to combat COVID-19, said epidemiologist and researcher Nazeem Muhajarine of the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon.

    Colijn’s modelling study does have multiple limitations, including the fact that researchers couldn’t know what the age distribution would be in an affected community — a factor that can skew rates of severe illness, since young children are less likely to be vaccinated and more likely to have serious complications.

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