President Biden performs best among several high-profile Democrats in hypothetical general election match-ups against former President Trump, according to a new poll. The Emerson College survey re…
This feels meaningless because of the undecideds. It’s true Biden is the only person to have beaten Trump directly, and going to anyone else cedes the “incumbent” advantage, maybe all the way back to Trump depending on how you think that advantage works, so I think there’s a good argument that it’s true Biden would do better than Harris or Newsom against Trump. But I don’t think polling is how you argue that.
This feels meaningless because of the undecideds. It’s true Biden is the only person to have beaten Trump directly, and going to anyone else cedes the “incumbent” advantage, maybe all the way back to Trump depending on how you think that advantage works, so I think there’s a good argument that it’s true Biden would do better than Harris or Newsom against Trump. But I don’t think polling is how you argue that.
There’s no reason to put “incumbent” in quotation marks there. That is the correct word and it is also a real advantage.