The official was asked if they agreed with Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, who said in a speech last month that the UK and the west was “moving from a postwar to a prewar world”.

“Is there a likelihood of a large-scale conflict? Yes, there is. It’s probably more likely than it has been at any recent point,” they said, reflecting a period of instability deepened by the Israel-Gaza war and US-led bombing campaigns against Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iranian-back militias in Iran and Syria.

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    18 months ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:


    British defence intelligence officials say the UK is closer to a large-scale conflict than at any recent point, as the Middle East crisis intensifies while Russia pursues an expansionist agenda and China develops advanced weapons.

    One senior official said the secretive 4,500-strong unit was the busiest it had been in at least a decade, and said the fast turnover of ministers made it harder to ensure key politicians were making informed decisions.

    It’s probably more likely than it has been at any recent point,” they said, reflecting a period of instability deepened by the Israel-Gaza war and US-led bombing campaigns against Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iranian-back militias in Iran and Syria.

    Defence Intelligence is not a statutory spy agency like MI5, MI6 and GCHQ but nevertheless forms a key part of Britain’s secret state, tasked with monitoring military threats, activity and conflict worldwide.

    Monitoring desks displaying maps, satellite imagery, drone footage or other feeds from conflict zones or other regions are arranged in honeycomb banks to allow for team working.

    The complex range of activities include using remote imagery to identifying potential Houthi missile and radar sites, which have been bombed three times by the US and UK since mid-January.


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