By last week, the evidence of a new and sustained attack against a crucial part of Russia’s economy was impossible to ignore. On Wednesday, a drone hit the Tuapse oil refinery in southern Russia on the Black Sea. Flames from the burning refinery were visible above an inky skyline. Nearby, the airport in Sochi – Putin’s favourite resort, famed for its pebble beaches – was forced to close.

So far this year, Ukrainian drones have struck at least four Russian oil and gas terminals across the country. The attacks are part of a growing asymmetrical campaign by Kyiv to cripple the industry and to deprive Moscow of the billions of dollars in global revenue it uses to fund its war. About half of Russia’s $420bn export earnings last year came from oil.

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    The attacks are part of a growing asymmetrical campaign by Kyiv to cripple the industry and to deprive Moscow of the billions of dollars in global revenue it uses to fund its war.

    After his early failure to seize Kyiv, Putin has ramped up arms production, transforming Russia into a war economy, and he has sourced additional munitions from North Korea.

    According to Anders Åslund, a former Atlantic Council senior fellow, Sullivan has advised Zelenskiy not to try to recapture Crimea or to strike the Kerch Bridge that connects the occupied peninsula with Russian territory.

    “We would expect Ukraine to hit further refineries, depots and export ports in these areas,” he said on Twitter/X, adding: “By insisting on being independent from transit countries, and maltreating them, Russia has made itself vulnerable.”

    Sergey Vakulenko, an oil expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said drones could not destroy a whole Russian refinery because modern firefighting equipment was available and so far the fires had been put out in a few hours.

    Speaking in Kyiv last week, one military intelligence official said Ukraine’s international partners had previously been squeamish when it came to the question of attacking Russia directly.


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