Maine’s top election official has removed former President Donald Trump from the state’s 2024 ballot, in a surprise decision based on the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban.”
This is Castro from the NPR link: Nine states have active federal lawsuits brought by John Anthony Castro, a tax attorney and longshot Republican presidential candidate who filed challenges in more than two dozen states seeking to block Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment. In October, the Supreme Court declined to hear Castro’s case. Afterward, judges in three states dismissed his lawsuits, and Castro voluntarily withdrew his cases in several others.
Going to get down voted for this, but I honestly think Minnesota has the right of it. The GOP is a private entity and can run whoever they want in their primaries.
14A has nothing to say about how parties select their candidates, and if they want to select someone who isn’t qualified that’s their problem.
Also, if Trump fails to win the GOP nomination, someone really needs to seed the idea that they should all do write in votes for Trump instead of whoever the GOP would nominate instead. Show the GOP they shouldn’t back down and show the Dems they can’t stop the Trump Train. Also, you know, splitting the GOP vote to make an easier Dem win, but sshhh about that last part.
The risk is what the GOP is threatening to do in Colorado. If Trump isn’t allowed on the public voting infrastructure, they’ll just caucus instead.
In which case, it’s likely that independents won’t be allowed to participate.
So for primaries, it’s likely to have the opposite effect, more likely for a Trump candidacy, by stirring up the base and locking out potential moderate voters.
For general election, Maine and Colorado don’t practically matter, they were never going to go to trump anyway. So for these two states, it’s ammunition for a persecution complex without good result. For it to be a good strategic win, it would have to be some states that Trump actually has a chance of winning.
The risk is what the GOP is threatening to do in Colorado. If Trump isn’t allowed on the public voting infrastructure, they’ll just caucus instead.
They have every right to. Again, because a primary isn’t an election for office, it’s a private entity (in this case the GOP) being allowed to borrow public infrastructure to help them decide who they want to back for the actual election.
Same reason super delegates for the Dems weren’t illegal, even if they were in bad faith.
If the state ruled Trump can’t be on the primary ballot because he’s ineligible to be president, then he can’t be on the main ballot because he’s ineligible to be president. That means no Republican will be on the ballot, and that’s really bad for the Republicans.
Trump missing from the ballot in Colorado and Maine would not make a difference, they don’t vote Republican in the general election anyway.
You’d need this to happen in a vaguely competitive state. Judging from the progress of various attempts, that doesn’t seem likely, unless the supreme Court declared it nationally, but I don’t see that happening even if they let Colorado and Maine stand.
So you have got a bunch of Trump die hards inspired to “fight like hell” in the face of what they describe as an injustice, all to block him in a state he wasn’t going to win anyway.
Now if you pulled this off in some place like Georgia, Florida, Texas, then sure, that would be quite the blow and may persuade the GOP voters to really around some other candidate that would be more tolerable. But Colorado and Maine aren’t going to really help general election results.
Here’s where we stand (pieced together) on all of the state cases trying to get him off the ballot: https://sh.itjust.works/post/11569127
This is Castro from the NPR link: Nine states have active federal lawsuits brought by John Anthony Castro, a tax attorney and longshot Republican presidential candidate who filed challenges in more than two dozen states seeking to block Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment. In October, the Supreme Court declined to hear Castro’s case. Afterward, judges in three states dismissed his lawsuits, and Castro voluntarily withdrew his cases in several others.
⚪ Alaska - lawsuit filed by Castro and pending - https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Arizona- case dismissed https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/federal-judge-rejects-bid-keep-trump-ballot-arizona-rcna128239
⚪ California - a call to the secretary of state, but unlikely. Also, Castro withdrew challenge - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/secretary-of-state-downplays-call-for-removal-of-trump-from-california-ballot/ar-AA1lWNv6
✔️ Colorado - Trump ruled to be not on ballot - Won by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Also, Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Connecticut - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Delaware - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Florida - dismissed & US supreme court refused to take it up- https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Idaho - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Kansas - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
✔️ Maine - decided by secretary of state -https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/28/politics/trump-maine-14th-amendment-ballot/index.html Previous rulings https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/22/us/maine-trump-ballot.html Also, Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Massachusetts - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Michigan - State supreme court denied to look at it: https://apnews.com/article/trump-insurrection-14th-amendment-ballot-michigan-colorado-b5a5d9ffa75efa63ab4780b04329e2a2 - brought by Free Speech for Free People - https://www.businessinsider.com/michigan-could-remove-trump-from-ballot-next-2023-12?op=1
⚪ Minnesota - state supreme court ruled the republican party can decide who they want on the primary ballot, but left the case open for another filing for the main ballot- brought by Free Speech for Free People, says they will bring more suits in the future- https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Montana - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
⚪ Nevada - Lawsuit filed by castro
⚪ New Mexico - pending Castro filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
⚪ New Jersey - pending Bellochio filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
⚪ New York - pending 2, Castro & Dewald filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
❌ North Carolina - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Oklahoma - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
⚪ Oregon - going to the state supreme court - Free Speech for Free People brought suit - https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Pennsylvania - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
❌ Rhode Island - dismissed - https://www.tampafp.com/federal-judge-in-rhode-island-tosses-trump-2024/
⚪ Texas - pending Castro filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
❌ Utah - Castro withdrew challenge https://www.npr.org/2023/12/21/1220769191/colorado-trump-candidacy-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection
⚪ Vermont - pending Castro filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
⚪ Virginia - filed by Roy L. Perry-Bey of Hampton https://www.wric.com/news/virginia-news/motion-filed-to-remove-trump-from-virginia-ballots/
⚪ West Virginia - pending Castro filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
⚪ Wisconsin - pending Castro filed suit https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
⚪ Wyoming - pending Newcomb v Gray (?) https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
This is such a thorough post. I really appreciate that you took the time to compile this.
Except they left out Hawai‘i
Going to get down voted for this, but I honestly think Minnesota has the right of it. The GOP is a private entity and can run whoever they want in their primaries.
14A has nothing to say about how parties select their candidates, and if they want to select someone who isn’t qualified that’s their problem.
Also, if Trump fails to win the GOP nomination, someone really needs to seed the idea that they should all do write in votes for Trump instead of whoever the GOP would nominate instead. Show the GOP they shouldn’t back down and show the Dems they can’t stop the Trump Train. Also, you know, splitting the GOP vote to make an easier Dem win, but sshhh about that last part.
Primaries use public voting infrastructure, at least in my state, so I can see the argument that courts can decide who is a legal primary candidate.
The risk is what the GOP is threatening to do in Colorado. If Trump isn’t allowed on the public voting infrastructure, they’ll just caucus instead.
In which case, it’s likely that independents won’t be allowed to participate.
So for primaries, it’s likely to have the opposite effect, more likely for a Trump candidacy, by stirring up the base and locking out potential moderate voters.
For general election, Maine and Colorado don’t practically matter, they were never going to go to trump anyway. So for these two states, it’s ammunition for a persecution complex without good result. For it to be a good strategic win, it would have to be some states that Trump actually has a chance of winning.
They have every right to. Again, because a primary isn’t an election for office, it’s a private entity (in this case the GOP) being allowed to borrow public infrastructure to help them decide who they want to back for the actual election.
Same reason super delegates for the Dems weren’t illegal, even if they were in bad faith.
It’s perfectly in their rights, but not what an effort seeking to prevent a Trump candidacy should want.
If the state ruled Trump can’t be on the primary ballot because he’s ineligible to be president, then he can’t be on the main ballot because he’s ineligible to be president. That means no Republican will be on the ballot, and that’s really bad for the Republicans.
Trump missing from the ballot in Colorado and Maine would not make a difference, they don’t vote Republican in the general election anyway.
You’d need this to happen in a vaguely competitive state. Judging from the progress of various attempts, that doesn’t seem likely, unless the supreme Court declared it nationally, but I don’t see that happening even if they let Colorado and Maine stand.
So you have got a bunch of Trump die hards inspired to “fight like hell” in the face of what they describe as an injustice, all to block him in a state he wasn’t going to win anyway.
Now if you pulled this off in some place like Georgia, Florida, Texas, then sure, that would be quite the blow and may persuade the GOP voters to really around some other candidate that would be more tolerable. But Colorado and Maine aren’t going to really help general election results.