While I agree it’s pretty damning, I’d point out that both parties are pretty desperate not to be blamed for the incident (or just generally sow confusion). It’s likely we won’t ever know definitively.
I’d also point out that because of the immense power imbalance (including the iron dome and broad western support) and a history of strikes against civilian targets generally (that Israel routinely warns Gaza about preemptively), it is more likely that it was an Israeli rocket responsible for the incident. But this is also conjecture and not conclusive.
If you’re looking for rationale to defend one side or the other, this probably isn’t it.
I have also seen one or more comments on another post about this situation (I think on Hexbear) saying it might have been one of the Iron Dome missiles. That the supposed failed rocket from Hamas failed to launch correctly, but was maybe high enough to still have caused a lock-on by the ID. Though I don’t know enough about how the dome works to really say how likely it would happen. As it could be an opportunistic moment for Israel to launch a few non-ID attack missiles. While the media would be more likely to be streaming the air-explosions from the intercept missiles.
If Israel’s story is wrong, doesn’t that pretty much mean it had to be Israel’s doing?
Is there any other theory supported by evidence?
While I agree it’s pretty damning, I’d point out that both parties are pretty desperate not to be blamed for the incident (or just generally sow confusion). It’s likely we won’t ever know definitively.
I’d also point out that because of the immense power imbalance (including the iron dome and broad western support) and a history of strikes against civilian targets generally (that Israel routinely warns Gaza about preemptively), it is more likely that it was an Israeli rocket responsible for the incident. But this is also conjecture and not conclusive.
If you’re looking for rationale to defend one side or the other, this probably isn’t it.
I have also seen one or more comments on another post about this situation (I think on Hexbear) saying it might have been one of the Iron Dome missiles. That the supposed failed rocket from Hamas failed to launch correctly, but was maybe high enough to still have caused a lock-on by the ID. Though I don’t know enough about how the dome works to really say how likely it would happen. As it could be an opportunistic moment for Israel to launch a few non-ID attack missiles. While the media would be more likely to be streaming the air-explosions from the intercept missiles.
We don’t know definitively, but the IDF has been the one spreading FUD and repeatedly lying about the incident, so…
Hamas has been remarkably consistent in their claims and recent OSINT analysis is overwhelmingly in support of an Israeli strike.
No other story is supported by evidence, but people don’t want to blame the IDF because it’ll undermine support for Israel.