Ukraine said on Monday its troops had liberated the southeastern settlement of Robotyne and were trying to push further south in their counteroffensive against Russian forces.
The next days will show how strategic it really is and what Russians will do to recapture it. They might go all in on it.
I don’t believe this is the single moment where the front breaks. I hope I’m wrong
There isn’t a single front really, and the importance of Robotyne is its proximity to Tokmak, which is really in its supply line value. Major rail networks pass through it. By taking Robotyne they have proximity to start shelling Tokmak which is heavily fortified on all sides. I don’t know where Russia would be pushing back to retake it, but guessing instead they are falling behind the second line of defenses and doubling down in holding Tokmak. If that one falls to Ukraine, then we’re talking about cutting off supplies from Melitopol down through Crimea. They’d be in position to essentially squeeze Russia out over time.
The next days will show how strategic it really is and what Russians will do to recapture it. They might go all in on it. I don’t believe this is the single moment where the front breaks. I hope I’m wrong
There isn’t a single front really, and the importance of Robotyne is its proximity to Tokmak, which is really in its supply line value. Major rail networks pass through it. By taking Robotyne they have proximity to start shelling Tokmak which is heavily fortified on all sides. I don’t know where Russia would be pushing back to retake it, but guessing instead they are falling behind the second line of defenses and doubling down in holding Tokmak. If that one falls to Ukraine, then we’re talking about cutting off supplies from Melitopol down through Crimea. They’d be in position to essentially squeeze Russia out over time.