Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.
This was before Israel began cutting off water, fuel, and medicine to Jenin, as part of their effort to expand the conflict. It ignores the thousands of casualties in the West Bank as well, which will continue to increase as Israel escalates.
The Anfal Campaign was what, 200,000 killed?
Unless the Palestinian death toll, already horrific, has quintupled, I don’t think your math checks out.
Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext
This was before Israel began cutting off water, fuel, and medicine to Jenin, as part of their effort to expand the conflict. It ignores the thousands of casualties in the West Bank as well, which will continue to increase as Israel escalates.