- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
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So which will SCOTUS rule:
A. January 6 wasn’t really an insurrection;
B. Trump didn’t participate;
C. The 14th Amendment doesn’t really mean what the plain words of it say it means
?
My bet is C
SCOTUS refused to entertain Trump’s election lie. Don’t be so certain they will be friendly to him this time. I hate the current SCOTUS, but they can surprise you sometimes.
Ill wait until all the
opinionsbribes are castThomas almost feels like he has an obligation to something other than his wallet, so he’s slowed down on the radically unpopular rulings.
The only certainty is that Roberts and the liberal judges would definitely not be onboard with ignoring the 14th. Kavanagh probably, Thomas all but certainly.
We can definitely hope. But it’s really going to come down to how well the individuals are owned.
If this were just a panel of supreme Court justices voting along their biases, It’s anybody’s guess what they could do. But they’re not exactly impartial and lots of people have lots of dirt against them then gobs and gobs of political power.
or D, an obscure quote from the Old Testament about the power of Kings and their scepters and orbs and whatnot
Is it good enough in English? Or are we dealing with the real thing?
wouldn’t surprise me if these idiots accidentally quoted Tolkien
refuse to take it up because they have no jurisdiction? It’s up to each state how to choose their electors.
Qualifications for being President is a constutional issue.
Disqualifiers you mean… But it’s still debatable… Especially since, as previously said, states are in charge of how they run elections.
They will probably pass it back to the states. It’s not like the blue states were going to vote for Trump anyways, and the “unfairness” of it will probably boost him in purple and red states.
They will probably pass it back to the states
If you want chaos, this would be the best bet.
It’s extremely risky for him. It looks like this was brought by citizens. Citizens in purple states could also bring it and get the same result. Some might say yes, some say no, but if enough say no name on ballot, he has no path to victory.
Would the republicans implode, choose among the trash candidates they currently have in the debates, or would someone new step up?
Unlike other republicans who are at the whim of trump, the Supreme Court can’t really be touched and don’t have to bow down to him while still being shitty republicans.
I dunno. The consequence of an unfavorable ruling is that the bribes stop.
Nah that’s the thing. Trump can kick rocks and there’ll still be plenty of “donors” who just so happen to have cases coming up.
The Supreme Court doesn’t really have any say in how states run their elections. That’s the only wrinkle I see on this. If they tried to dictate state elections, states could just ignore it.
Going with C. Without explicit language to the president, they will need to interpret this to mean the president included, which may be up to anyone’s interpretation.
I feel it should, however it could be argued it doesn’t.
who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof
It cannot be argued in good faith. Talking about the presidency as an office has been a thing forever, and therefore the president is an officer. He’s also an officer just by the plain meaning of the word officer. I never heard one peep to the contrary until people started looking for a way for Trump to weasel his way out of the 14th amendment.
It’s all up to interpretation though, you might not see it, or you might have heard it in a way, but it can be argued. Similar to the lower court judge saying so.
Similarly one of the judge points out in the dissenting opinion there is no conviction of insurrection.
So I still think C will win, but A or B is a possibility too.
"In the absence of an insurrection-related conviction, I would hold that a request to disqualify a candidate under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment is not a proper cause of action under Colorado’s election code. Therefore, I would dismiss the claim at issue here”
I see it just fine. I reject it as a bad faith argument. Any judge who entertains it is showing how corrupt they are.
Pointing to a lack of a conviction, OTOH, is at least a reasonable argument not based on pretending not to understand what words mean.
Yea fair enough. Just a different set of eyes is all. Thanks for the response!
The lack of conviction is prolly the biggest hurdle here which makes me wonder who would, or even could, bring those charges (even if the lower court explicitly stated he did). Jack smith has his hands full and while interesting to follow it’s not a direct case of questioning insurrection. Curious as to where it all leads.
End of the day, it starts to ask the question, which prolly ends at the Supreme Court no matter what.
Trump wss just committed to the continuity of government at all costs. Including the republic itself.
(That is the likely argument)
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Literally anythng that keeps him on the ballot is my guess.
or maybe that he hasnt been convicted yet of it
That would be “B” there’s a B guy here.
Good, this shouldn’t even have been a debate. It is clear that Trump attempted a coordinated effort to stay in office. If that’s not disqualifying from president, then nothing is.
Cool, if only the states he has a chance of winning would follow suit.
precedent! a ruling here could be used in a non hostile state!
As much as I’d love to see other states follow, I don’t see how this would be relevant in any other state. It’s a state supreme court ruling on a issue within their own state. Any other state trying to claim precedence would be really strange
The supreme court case that follows is what they are referring to and that CAN affect other states
Except that’s my point. SCOTUS has held that up every step of the way. Even with how absolutely fucked the current court is, I honestly doubt they’re going to decide to throw state’s rights to control their elections out the window, considering they’d effectively be signing the electoral college’s death warrant
There are two issues here. I don’t think the Supreme Court can’t decide if he goes on the ballot, but they can decide if he’s eligible to become president.
States can put Trump on the ballot and send electors for him, but if the Supreme Court rules that he’s ineligible, he can no more become president than if he were a child or a foreign national.
(Caveat: IANAL)
Note that this applies to the primary also, so it might damage him by encouraging his Republican challengers to stay in the race.
Nah his supporters will write him in for sure.
And that would be a literal wasted vote as it won’t count.
Win-win.
Ahh but can they spell it correctly?
Theyll spell it Drumpf and try to get the votes on a technicality
Not how write ins work
Those people just won’t turn out at all
Not having to spend any campaign money in Colorado means you can spend it elsewhere.
This is a massively historical moment. But, with everything that has happened the last several years this is, quite literally, Tuesday for me.
Nothing is final until the federal supreme court weighs in or the election is final.
At this stage of the game all of the appeals in the world are in play.
ftfa
The court put its decision on hold until Jan. 4 to allow for further appeals. It also said that if the matter is pursued before the U.S. Supreme Court before that date, the pause will remain in effect during that time and Colorado will be required to include Trump’s name on the primary ballot pending action by the Supreme Court.
Article also mentions the supreme court in CO is appointed by all democrats. A big win would be a red state agreeing with this.
I’m not too sure about that. I think it’s pretty open and shut and scotus can’t do anything about it.
Case law has found time and again that states can decide their own election laws, and that the federal government cannot override that except in the most egregious cases.
But the very cases where they chose to defer were huge, election changing cases, like Bush v Gore and the VRA.
I don’t think they can even issue a stay without doing the exact same thing. The current stay is through the 4th because CO law says they have to set the ballots by Jan 5. So even issuing a stay would be the feds overstepping the bounds.
Overstepping their own bounds in fact, since people still on this court decided those cases, and Gorsuch actually ruled on this same Colorado law in favor of CO having the right to control its own ballot.
What this means is very possible sweep in CO, because if Trump isn’t on the ballot, that will hurt turnout which would flip some new areas blue. That’s the entire downticket from senators to dogcatchers.
I think it’s pretty open and shut and scotus can’t do anything about it.
Justice Thomas will go on a long vacation aboard a yacht and come back with a different opinion than you.
I have no doubt about that one.
The fun bit is that he voted with the majority in those other cases. He’s going to either come up with some Olympic level gymnastics or just write “No.” There’s no in between.
Actually I have MORE faith in Thomas siding with Colorado because he’s corrupt. A dictator doesn’t need a corrupt supreme court but a republican president does.
Man, Colorado just can’t stop winning
Colorado is seemingly a cool state to be in. I’d really consider moving there lately.
Yeah, we’re pretty awesome.
Thank Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold
Current SCotUS is hella corrupt, but I don’t see them denying that the individual States control their own elections.
It would certainly be interesting to see the long-term ramifications if they tried.
Sweet, consequences. Cheers Colorado.
Someone in Colorado did their job.
Now let’s see how many other states follow.
One down, 49 to go!
It won’t take 50 to ensure he loses, thankfully.
No, it’s much worse than that. With Trump off the ballot, Biden will automatically win. That’s an automatic 9 point loss for Trump and a 9 point gain for Biden, making Trump start at 18 points down. That’s a lot to make up.
CO would also largely blue from the senate on down because of a depressed turnout without Trump on the ballot.
if he’s not on the ballot in CO, they also wouldn’t ratify his election… they may not seem big, but they have the Air Force Academy and NORAD i think…
And the Stargate program
How does that work, legally speaking? Have we ever had a President in the past century that had states that didn’t allow them on the ballot? Outside of having to go all the way back to like Lincoln times.
Fuck the republican traitor filth.
Colorado has 10 electoral votes.
It hurts republican downballot candidates tho. There’s gonna be a number of Trump voters who won’t show up if he’s not on the ballot and they would have been straight ticket republican votes.
Also this sets a big precedent.
Colorado is very blue. Most Republicans left for Idaho or Texas a long time ago.
3 out of 8 of their house members are republicans, famously including Lauren Boebert. Obviously not a ton but margins in both chambers have been razor thin lately so every bit counts.
95% of the state population libe in blue areas. 5% live in the east or west and south of Colorado.
They have 3 house seats in Colorado and one of them is one of the dumbest, most toxic fucking people in congress and she (Boebert) won her seat with 50.06% of the vote.
Literally .07% of people not showing up in her election would have been a victory for her opponent. It was a 546 vote difference. That is razor thin.
Then for the other two republican house seats, one of them won with 60.9% of the vote and another won with 56% of the vote.
So your argument doesn’t really hold up here. Two of those seats are arguably in jeopardy. Maybe even the third. The Republicans have the house by only 8 seats right now. Every single seat counts for a lot. Even if the democrats didn’t take the house, a smaller margin prevents fucksticks like the freedom caucus from being so obstructive of bipartisan legislation.
And all of this ignores stuff like state, county, and school district level positions.
and laws
I’m still scared shitless about the prospect of him winning or being handed the presidency by GOP ghouls, but this is the most hopeful news I’ve seen in a while. Granted at this point I think any Republican candidate would be as bad or worse if they won, none of them have the hold over the base that Trump does. We’ll see if it cascades in a meaningful way but we likely won’t be out of the woods even if it does.
One interesting take here is that the states have complete autonomy, per the constitution, to do their elections however they want. They are only required to select a candidate and send electors as a state. So that could be a great side-step, to say “the state is deciding state election policy for a state, and this is not a federal matter.”
