- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmit.online
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmit.online
Estonia considers itself a front-line state, a Nato member where its border guards stare across the Narva River at the Russian fortress of Ivangorod.
This tiny Baltic state, once a part of the Soviet Union, is convinced that once the fighting stops in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics, looking to bring countries like Estonia back under Moscow’s control.
To help stave off that possibility, Estonia’s government has poured money and weapons into Ukraine’s war effort, donating more than 1% of its GDP to Kyiv.
If Ukraine falls, the plan B is securing the land connection between Poland and the Baltics from a potential offensive coming from Belarus, and cutting Kaliningrad from Russia-Belarus. Conversely, Russia’s plan is establishing a land connection to Kaliningrad and cutting the Baltics, although now that Finland has joined NATO, it isn’t that much of an useful goal for them anymore.
All in all, a direct Russia-NATO war is extremely unlikely, unless there are extreme geopolitical realignments in the EU.
The Suwałki Corridor is even less important strategically after Sweden joined NATO and forces can move through there. Its main importance right now is for reinforcing Kaliningrad, which itself is not very supportive of Mother Russia actions. So in a hypothetical invasion scenario who even knows what would happen in Kaliningrad.