China has begun its second day of military drills targeting Taiwan, in what it says is punishment for “separatist acts” after the inauguration of its new president on Monday.
The exercises, which involve Chinese military units from the air force, rocket force, navy, army, and coast guard, were announced suddenly on Thursday morning, with maps showing five approximate target areas in the sea surrounding Taiwan’s main island. Other areas also targeted Taiwan’s offshore islands, which are close to the Chinese mainland.
China’s defence ministry said the drills on Friday were testing its military’s ability to “seize power” and occupy key areas, in line with Beijing’s ultimate goal of annexing Taiwan. Taiwan’s government and people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but China’s ruler Xi Jinping has not renounced the use of force to take the island. Western intelligence has claimed Xi has told the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of an invasion by 2027.
I’m not so sure he’s smarter. I think he believes he has more time than Putin believes he has. And he’s probably right about that.
Yeah that might be a better assessment of the situation. I would say he is more calculating than Putin.
Putin is a KGB officer who rose to the highest position in his country, then formed a position above that for himself. I’d say he is very calculating.
These are both very smart, ruthless, calculating men. I think the biggest difference is where in the timeline each is currently at, their ultimate goals, and the time they feel they have left to achieve that. Other key differences I would say are cultural, reflecting more on what their goals are and their method of achieving them.
Culture difference is a big thing. I do think Putin has lost a step. If you look at previous autocratic actions by him they were better planned and executed. Yeah Ukraine is the biggest thing he has tried to do. At the same time Putin is further down the dictator trap I really don’t think Putin of ten years ago would have blinder so badly. Xi is an autocratic too and will definitely get there eventually. He is just not as deep in the hole.
What do you see as their individual goals?
Putin has stated more than once a desire to see the soviet empire reunified. Related to that, I think he wants greater power for that empire. There are also good indications that he has serious health issues that don’t give him much time to do that in. Under those premises, the wars with Georgia and Ukraine make sense. I suspect the biggest reasons the war with Ukraine reignited is due to his awareness that he has less than a decade to cement his agenda and Ukraine would bolster the position of his successor for continued expansionist goals. The problem was probably twofold. He let his sense of urgency push him to act before he was ready and his advisors were giving him inaccurate information about the readiness and numbers of his military. Now he’s in a position where regrouping will probably end his reign so he’s relying on overwhelming his enemy with numbers rather than superior (or even equivalent) technology.
China, for all its size, doesn’t seem to be overly expansionist. As long as you aren’t oriental, you seem to be more of a financial target. Of course, this doesn’t bode well for much of southeast Asia, eastern Russia, and Japan, but it probably comforts places like Australia and the Middle East. Also, culturally, China seems to be more oriented to group achievements rather than personal ones. Certainly, Xi wants to leave his mark, but moving towards the goal is enough to do that, rather than having to be the one to achieve it. This leads to more reserved actions, such as waiting a couple decades to take over Hong Kong rather than going to war with the West. Coupled with what appears to be a strong desire for homogeneity, forcing conquered peoples such as Tibetans and Uyghurs to adapt to national norms rather than maintaining their unique cultural traits, there seems to be a generational attitude towards expanding and integrating other regions, which again leads to a more reserved and strategic approach to their diplomatic relations compared to Russia’s.
As a note, I’m very much a layperson with a strong Western background. I don’t assume my opinions are correct, nor do I believe I’d even notice some of the nuances or motivations in either Russian or Chinese culture. This is just my assessment based on my admittedly limited knowledge in the military world and more generally in the political world.
Thanks for your input!