- Oil and gas facilities in Russia have caught fire in recent weeks following suspected drone attacks.
- In the latest attack, an oil refinery in the southwestern Volgograd region was ablaze on Saturday.
- Russia’s air-defense systems have proven to be less effective against small drones.
In the hands of an ally like Ukraine, this is a powerful tool to bring the fight to the enemy.
However, in the bigger picture, this is probably going to be much more effective in asymmetric warfare against a major power like the United States or Russia as tragically shown in Jordan because it’s too easy for small actors to deploy. Big targets are much more vulnerable than small, mobile targets in such warfare.
This hasn’t really been real-world tested against hardened targets like an American carrier battle group either. Against manned aircraft the group’s many layers of defenses are well known and extremely hard. Has it ever been attacked by 1000 cheap drones at once that fly no more than 20ft above sea level? What about multiple waves of them? Aegis destroyers firing missiles that cost $300k a piece are great against MiGs that cost a few million each. Against a drone that costs $500-1000…idk. CIWS systems can down a few drones but they’ll run out of ammo against large waves.
I don’t think a swarm like that could carry enough ordnance to actually sink a carrier even if they made it that far in. But there’s a large difference between sinking it and doing nothing. Even temporarily suspending flight operations is a huge accomplishment if you can get it done for $100k.
I’m sure the Pentagon has run simulations on this but the way the world is going I think we’re going to witness a real world test relatively soon.