Donald Trump has a small, but clear, advantage over Joe Biden right now. This makes Biden just the second president since scientific polling began to trail in his reelection bid at this point in the campaign.
Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998.
21 days out. Not a year. A fuck ton can change a year out.
The only ones who answer are 55 and up who are dying to talk to anyone or anything with a pulse because their kids hate the Trump shit they…
I fully agree that a lot can change in a year buy that’s not at all the argument you seemed to be making. All of these explanations are just as true for a poll a year out as they are for a poll a week out.
Okay but the last round of election polls which had nationwide results to check against were historically accurate.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Unless you think everyone under 40 decided to stop answering their phones after the midterms?
21 days out. Not a year. A fuck ton can change a year out.
I fully agree that a lot can change in a year buy that’s not at all the argument you seemed to be making. All of these explanations are just as true for a poll a year out as they are for a poll a week out.