Donald Trump has a small, but clear, advantage over Joe Biden right now. This makes Biden just the second president since scientific polling began to trail in his reelection bid at this point in the campaign.
Political polls don’t mean anything for the average person, anyway. They are only useful for the PACs trying to figure out strategies and for the political scientists analyzing social behavior.
Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998.
21 days out. Not a year. A fuck ton can change a year out.
The only ones who answer are 55 and up who are dying to talk to anyone or anything with a pulse because their kids hate the Trump shit they…
I fully agree that a lot can change in a year buy that’s not at all the argument you seemed to be making. All of these explanations are just as true for a poll a year out as they are for a poll a week out.
I trust zero polls.
No one younger than 40 answers a strange number.
The only ones who answer are 55 and up who are dying to talk to anyone or anything with a pulse because their kids hate the Trump shit they post.
Vote. Get everyone you know to vote.
Shit, buy them an election blunt and smoke it after you vote as a celebration. This country and the world needs you to vote out Republicans in 2024.
Political polls don’t mean anything for the average person, anyway. They are only useful for the PACs trying to figure out strategies and for the political scientists analyzing social behavior.
Okay but the last round of election polls which had nationwide results to check against were historically accurate.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Unless you think everyone under 40 decided to stop answering their phones after the midterms?
21 days out. Not a year. A fuck ton can change a year out.
I fully agree that a lot can change in a year buy that’s not at all the argument you seemed to be making. All of these explanations are just as true for a poll a year out as they are for a poll a week out.
I wonder if there’s a skew from polls from factors that make someone under 40 more or less likely to answer a strange number.